Presidential Race in the USA: Neck-and-Neck Race Between Harris and Trump

The campaign duel for the American presidency between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is less than two months away from the election and is on a knife's edge. After President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, the tide has turned in favor of the Democratic candidate Harris. However, an analysis by the Financial Times indicates that the race is extremely close and brings back memories of the 2020 election, in which Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the critical swing states. The FT's poll tracker shows that Harris is currently leading nationally with 48.8 percent, compared to Trump's 45.2 percent. But the final decision is made in the Electoral College, a system that gives swing states disproportionate influence. Here, the candidates have no clear advantages: Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump slightly dominates Arizona and North Carolina. Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia could be the deciding factors, as the margins are minimal there. Economic issues are the primary concern for voters. Interestingly, recent polls in key states show that Trump has the upper hand on these matters. Nevertheless, Harris has for the first time managed to score in a national FT survey on economic competence, albeit narrowly. Another central issue is immigration, which is gaining importance particularly in border states like Arizona and favors Trump. On the other hand, Harris benefits from the debate on abortion rights, which has become particularly significant for younger women after the constitutional right was overturned by the Supreme Court. Financially, Harris is also well-positioned. Since her candidacy in July, she has raised over $540 million and has $220 million in liquid assets, while Trump has $151 million available and had to cover substantial legal costs of over $85 million. Both campaigns are investing significant amounts in advertising: Harris has allocated a total of $340 million for ads, while Trump has planned $187 million. A significant portion of these amounts comes from super political action committees (Super-PACs), which are not subject to any donation limits. Pro-Harris groups have booked over $170 million for advertising in the seven swing states and one electoral district in Nebraska, while pro-Trump groups have invested over $124 million. These numbers are likely to increase further as the candidates and supporting groups work towards the final stretch of the election.