AlleAktien Quality Score

Quality stocks are defined in Germany as stocks with an AAQS of 9 or 10 points. According to Bloomberg, these stocks achieve a return of 16% p.a. Buy-and-hold investors in particular attach great importance to only including quality stocks in their portfolio that can be held for 10 years or more with confidence.

AlleAktien Quality Score

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Filter by quality. At the beginning of the investment in stocks, investors are faced with difficult decisions, as there is a very large selection of stocks. In order not to have to analyze all companies before investing, AlleAktien has developed the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) to find top-quality stocks with solid fundamental data.

Quality leads to outperformance. The AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) saves a tremendous amount of time and provides a solid foundation for conducting a more detailed analysis of these companies. Stocks with 9/10 or 10/10 ratings often indicate the best companies in the world or future outperformers, enabling proven excess returns. With the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS), we aim to showcase these stocks to you.

Long-term thinking. In the whole concept, AlleAktien was inspired by Warren Buffett: It is much better in the long run to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a mediocre company at a cheap price. Long-term investments are based on companies that exist over 10 or 20 years and still represent absolute quality companies.

Filter high-quality companies. An overwhelming selection of stocks is available to investors. In order to avoid having to analyze them one by one, the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) provides us with a good pre-filter to then conduct a comprehensive analysis, which often takes several weeks or months.

2. Four key points define quality: Evaluation, growth, profitability, and risk already indicate in most cases how a company should be classified. Using the checklist in the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) with 10 individual points, it can be immediately determined whether the existing company is a quality company or not.

3. Scientific Basis: To test the hypothesis and the points, AlleAktien naturally examined the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) with the help of Bloomberg and FactSet and came to the conclusion that stocks with a high score were able to achieve a significant excess return, whereas low scores led to an underperformance. Thus, the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) also establishes a basis for creating return expectations.

4. Quality Stocks at a glance: In this article, we have selected and listed the stocks with the highest ratings in the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS), enabling everyone to start their in-depth analysis directly in order to achieve an excess return.

Quality takes time. At AlleAktien, between two and four weeks of work go into each analysis and research to understand the business model and industry excellently. But which companies actually make it into an analysis? Here, the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) serves as a useful tool developed by AlleAktien itself. This helps the investor to make a certain preselection of companies that are considered absolute quality values. With over 1,000 stocks in Germany and over 85,000 worldwide, one virtually has the agony of choice, but not every company is a quality company.

The AlleAktien Quality Score has a clear mission: Finding and holding long-term corporate investments. Long-term means here over 10 years. The goal is to find companies that can consistently increase both revenue and profit in the long run, demonstrate a deep moat, and regularly raise dividends.

Unique companies. Special attention should be paid to the unique features of the company, making it difficult for other companies to gain the same market position. Speculative stocks, turnarounds, or companies with an unclear position are not the target, as they often lead to significant price changes and a clear underperformance. To avoid this, we use the quantitatively designed AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS). This is the best tool to identify exciting companies in a short period of time. The AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) is based on objective indicators, making it clearly determinable and can also be historically validated (backtest).

Goal: Higher returns, lower risk. In 2018, AlleAktien wondered how the quality of a company can actually be determined. They came up with four characteristics that can be measured with 10 criteria. The points: valuation, growth, profitability, and risk were the most important in order to truly understand and assess a company in depth. One point is awarded for each fulfilled criterion, resulting in a final score. A company is considered high quality with 9/10 points or more.

The AAQS return is proven. At AlleAktien, we stand for scientifically based stock analyses. In order to verify the findings, statements, and models, they have undergone a scientific test. A backtest was conducted for the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) to compare the model with indices. The strategy was examined using historical returns. This is the only way to ensure that the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) works in the long term.

In order to conduct a successful backtest, AlleAktien sought assistance from Christian W. Röhl. He helped with the conception and evaluation to achieve meaningful results. It was important to include companies that have been acquired or gone bankrupt.

Professional analysis of the AlleAktien quality score. Before the score was established, a benchmark had to be defined against which one can measure oneself. For this purpose, AlleAktien has taken the DAX family, consisting of DAX, MDAX and SDAX. Since banks, insurance companies, and real estate companies cannot be evaluated with the AAQS, they were left out.

The backtest started in the year 2006, with an equal weighting of all stocks. This equal weighting is always restored on July 1st of each year. The Bloomberg-EQS tool was used for the creation.

The AAQS benchmark outperformed the DAX significantly in the backtest, with an average return of 8.43% p.a. since 01.07.2006, compared to a return of 5.88% p.a. in the same period.

Risk minimization with high returns. For this purpose, a portfolio was created which exclusively includes companies with 9 or 10 points. If a company loses one or two points, it will be sold on July 1st. The portfolio has achieved an average return of 12% per year in the same period as the benchmark. Thus, the high-quality companies from the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) have generated over 3% more return than the Dax family.

Now one naturally wonders whether the excess return is due to the AllStocks Quality Score (AAQS) or perhaps to another random factor. This question must be answered honestly: it cannot be proven with 100% certainty. However, it can be said that the whole concept was constructed from scratch and only then followed by a backtest.

AlleAktien has therefore considered what truly makes a company a high-quality company and what does not. In doing so, they have identified ten unique criteria that align perfectly with the four main characteristics. The subsequent backtest was successful. Based on this first-principles approach, AlleAktien strongly believes that the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) can be replicated in the years to come.

Significant difference in returns in both directions. Recently, the top 10 and bottom 10 stocks were analyzed and both portfolios were compared to the benchmark. Additionally, it was examined whether the top 10/10 scores generated excess returns compared to the 9/10 scores. Surprisingly, the portfolio generated a return of 16.4%. On the other hand, the portfolio with the worst stocks experienced a negative return of -3.4%. Thus, a clear trend can be identified - the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) avoids poor investments.

1. Revenue growth 10Y > 5% p.a.

The most fundamental measure. This metric considers the average revenue growth of the last 10 years (CAGR). In the long run, companies become more valuable when revenues and profits can be continuously increased.

Example Microsoft: In 2010, the company generated 62 billion USD in revenue. In 2020, the revenue amounted to 143 billion USD. Microsoft has therefore achieved an average annual revenue growth of 8.7%. The threshold of 5% is exceeded and there is a point in the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS).

2. Revenue growth in the next 3 years

The future should be derived from the past. Here, we consider the average growth rate in the future based on consensus estimates from FactSet. Of course, one should not base any investment solely on the analysts' assessments, but these usually have a good perception and roughly indicate what the market expects. Here, we consider the three future years, as the company's value will heavily depend on future revenues.

In the best case, a company succeeds in achieving annual revenue growth of over 5% in both the average of the last 10 years and the expectations of the coming years. There is also a point in the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) for this. However, it is important that steadily increasing revenue is not of much value if the operating profits do not also grow steadily.

Example Microsoft: In 2020, the company generated 143 billion USD in revenue. Analyst estimates for 2023 amount to 198 billion USD. This implies an average revenue growth of 11.5%. This also exceeds the 5% threshold and is recorded with a point.

3. EBIT growth 10Y > 5% p.a.

Profitability at high sales. As with revenue, now we are looking at the past 10 years, but this time at the operating profit (EBIT). Ideally, a company manages to continuously increase its profit growth in line with revenue.

Often, with still unprofitable software companies, one can see that they have incredibly high revenue growth but only incur losses because they offer their product at steep discounts. Shareholders then receive very little of the growth and the customer rush.

Example Microsoft: Microsoft In 2010, an operating profit of 24 billion USD was achieved, which increased to 53 billion USD in 2020. This results in an average profit growth of 8.2%. This also adds a point.

4. EBIT growth in the next 3 years

Profit should grow with revenue. This ratio considers the average annual expected operating profit growth over the next three years.

Just like with revenue, an estimation provides a much better picture of market expectations. This is because the value of a stock is determined by all future cash flows, discounted to the present day.

Example Microsoft In 2020, the company achieved an operating profit of $53 billion. The estimates for 2023 amount to $78 billion, representing an average growth of 13.7%.

With these points, AlleAktien has created a solid foundation and it is already possible to filter out the companies that have not consistently grown throughout all market phases.

5. Debt < 4x EBIT

Eliminate indebted companies. A point is awarded here if the company's net financial debt is lower than four times the operating profit. The calculation proceeds as follows:

All interest-bearing liabilities (short- and long-term bonds, loans, etc.) minus the company's cash balance.

The advantage of this criterion is to filter out companies that are highly indebted. If the company is no longer able to cope with the accumulated debt (e.g. due to rising interest rates), it can quickly become dangerous for shareholders.

To stick with the example. Microsoft In 2020, Microsoft had long- and short-term financial liabilities amounting to USD 82 billion. The cash balance stood at USD 137 billion, making Microsoft not only debt-free but also having a net liquidity of USD 55 billion. This is a real showcase example and deserves the next point.

6. Profitable for 10+ years

Solid business model with strong moat in all market phases. For the next criterion, the company must have recorded a profit every year in the last 10 years. If a company has incurred an operating loss in any year, it will not receive a point. This also penalizes companies that were not well positioned in every market phase.

Here we also get Microsoft the next point. Every year has been completed with a positive result.

7. EBIT Drawdown 10Y < -50 %

Crisis-resistant. The operating profit (EBIT) must never have fallen by more than 50% compared to the previous record profit in the 10-year period. Only if this has been achieved, there is a point.

Example Microsoft: The company experienced the highest drawdown in 2016. Profit was 26.1% lower compared to the previous peak. The value was below 50%, earning Microsoft (US5949181045) the next point.

With the last three criteria, the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS) aims to "punish" companies that have very cyclical or risky business models. This focuses on solid revenue and profit growth, supported by proper financing and stable earnings.

8. Return on Equity > 15%

For further growth, a high return on equity is necessary. If the underlying company is able to generate a return on equity of more than 15%, there will be an additional point.

When a company grows, new properties must be purchased, real estate must be built, machinery and equipment must be paid for, and employees must be hired. A high return on equity is necessary to finance these expenses.

The Calculation: Microsoft had equity of 118 billion USD in 2020, from which goodwill is deducted (- 43 billion USD), resulting in tangible equity of 75 billion USD. Now divide the net profit by tangible equity to obtain the return on equity (44 billion USD / 75 billion USD = 58.7%).

Hereby you receive Microsoft: Microsoft another point, as the company is very profitable and significantly above the threshold of 15%.

9. ROCE > 15%

Little debt. To avoid manipulation of the return on equity, one also examines the return on capital employed (ROCE). Although this is similar to the return on equity, it cannot be manipulated by high leverage. If the company operates with a lot of debt, it requires little equity, which may work well in good times with low interest rates, but can quickly become a problem in bad times.

When considering the overall return on capital, the operating profit is compared to the interest-bearing capital invested. The invested capital is the sum of the equity (equity minus goodwill) and the net financial debt. By calculating the return on invested capital, we obtain a meaningful indicator of the operational profitability of a company, regardless of its capital structure.

uns können Sie alle Aktien mit aktuellen Kursen und weiteren wichtigen Kennzahlen finden. Unser Ziel ist es, Ihnen alle relevanten Informationen zu bieten, damit Sie fundierte Entscheidungen treffen können. Unsere Charts und Diagramme helfen Ihnen dabei, die Entwicklung der einzelnen Aktien im Zeitverlauf nachzuvollziehen. Wir aktualisieren unsere Daten kontinuierlich, um sicherzustellen, dass Sie stets auf dem neuesten Stand sind. Nutzen Sie unseren Service und entdecken Sie den Fair Value Ihrer Lieblingsaktien. Microsoft: So we subtract the net liquidity (55 billion USD) from the equity (75 billion USD), resulting in 20 billion USD as the invested capital. Now we divide the EBIT (53 billion USD) by the invested capital and obtain a ROCE of 265%.

Eulerpool Here as well we provide Microsoft: an absolute peak value, thus scoring another point. The reason for this impressive result is conservative financing.

10. Return expectation > 10%

A good future return. If the expected return is above 10%, the company will receive a point for the tenth criterion. This is the only key figure that depends on the past price development.

The expected return is calculated using the IRR model. There are two main components: the Free Cash Flow yield and the annual EBIT growth.

To calculate the Free Cash Flow Yield, divide the Free Cash Flow of the current year by the market capitalization. The Free Cash Flow is the amount generated at the end of the year and available for discretionary use.

The second source of return is EBIT growth. The model assumes that the stock will be valued with the same multiple in the future. Therefore, the stock price must follow the increasing earnings in order to maintain the P/E ratio and valuation.

Microsoft: had a free cash flow yield of 2.8% in 2020. The EBIT growth of the next three years (13.7% p.a. (Expectation)) is now added to the free cash flow yield, resulting in an expected yield of 16.5% per year. With this, Microsoft (US5949181045) receives 10 out of 10 points and is considered an absolute quality company from the perspective of the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS).

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