López Obrador in the Home Stretch: The Attempt at a National Transformation

After six years at the helm of Mexico, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is on the brink of departure – but his greatest influence might stem from his final month in office. During his tenure, López Obrador has become increasingly radicalized and needs only one more legislator to achieve a two-thirds majority in the Senate, after his party already secured such a majority in the lower house. Armed with this power, he has begun to push through significant constitutional changes before handing over his office on October 1 to his designated successor, Claudia Sheinbaum. Central to López Obrador's plans, which Sheinbaum also supports, is the replacement of all judges and the Supreme Court with directly elected individuals. This has caused unrest in Mexico and internationally, as it is unclear what further moves the unpredictable President might undertake in the coming weeks. On Wednesday morning, the lower house approved a draft for judicial reform, despite massive protests and warnings from international investors and foreign governments. International experts view the election of judges as a threat to judicial independence and warn of a regression into autocratic structures. The USA, an important trade partner of Mexico, expressed concerns over possible negative impacts on bilateral trade relations and investments. During his tenure, López Obrador has repeatedly criticized the judiciary, stirring tensions, especially after the courts blocked several of his legislative proposals. However, his populist policies have resonated strongly with the populace, leading to a triumphant success for his party in the recent elections. Nevertheless, the economic situation remains tense, as evidenced by a 13 percent loss in value of the Mexican Peso since the election. López Obrador plans further reforms to strengthen military power and dissolve independent regulatory bodies. Critics fear that these developments could endanger multi-party democracy and further weaken state control over crime-ridden areas. It remains unclear how much influence López Obrador will have after his term. He has announced plans to retire and write a book on Mexican culture. Despite these statements, many doubt that he will completely withdraw from politics.