Under High Tension: Europe Between Harris and Trump

The upcoming US presidential election on November 5th presents two possible scenarios for Europe: a challenging Kamala Harris in the White House or a second term for Donald Trump, which may cause Europe even more headaches than the first. Neither candidate is likely, in Europe's view, to make significant concessions in trade policy and the burden-sharing of rising security costs among NATO allies. While Harris is perceived as a continuation of Biden's policy, a Trump presidency carries the risk, among other things, that the US might reduce its support for Ukraine, forcing European governments to drastically increase defense spending. Additionally, Trump could adversely affect Europe by instigating a global trade war, given that European economies are highly export-dependent. The inconsistent stance in the US towards China creates additional uncertainties on both sides of the Atlantic, potentially negatively impacting companies like the Dutch high-tech chip supplier ASML. Support for free trade in Washington has significantly declined in recent years; both Harris and Trump might continue protectionist measures. European firms based in the US, such as Germany's Trumpf, are therefore faced with uncertainties due to the unclear political situation. Meanwhile, Spanish olive producers are still suffering from the penalties imposed during Trump's first term. Beyond the direct economic consequences, the election could also have significant impacts on defense budgets in Europe, as both Harris and Trump might increase the pressure on Europe to spend more on its own security. This means that Europe is challenged to minimize potential uncertainties and possibly undertake structural reforms—a prospect viewed positively by pro-European optimists.