The translation of the heading to English is: "ECB before interest rate cut in October – Tension in the markets rises.

The European Central Bank (ECB) appears to be on the verge of making another interest rate cut—a possibility that was scarcely considered just a few weeks ago. Recent data suggest a weakening economy in the Eurozone, fueling hopes for faster rate cuts. Just a month ago, a cut seemed unlikely; now traders are predicting a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction. In September, an unexpected decline in business activity in the Eurozone significantly raised expectations for a rate move in October. This has led to concerns that the ECB may make potential missteps with its data-driven strategy. ECB President Christine Lagarde has hinted that a decline in inflation may influence the bank’s decision. While traders are anticipating further rate moves, the ECB's decision-makers are still hesitant. Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn stated that the pace and scale of further cuts would be decided from meeting to meeting. AXA economist Gilles Moec anticipates that the December meeting could represent a turning point. Inflation, once a major concern, has fallen below the 2% target, leading traders to be optimistic that price growth will remain manageable. However, not all risks have been averted: the services sector is still at 4% inflation, and the current decline is largely due to falling energy prices. Stagnation risks are increasingly becoming central, even though the ECB officially only pursues the inflation target. An economic upswing is forecasted, but some experts view these assessments as overly optimistic. AXA warns that a lack of recovery could result in inflation staying below the target. Geopolitical risks, particularly rising oil prices in light of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, serve as additional growth hindrances. BNP Paribas stresses that low inflation gives the ECB some leeway to tolerate short-term energy-driven price spikes. However, possible trade barriers following the US elections might bring new challenges.