China and the Art of Missile Strikes: Lessons from Iran's Attacks on Israel

The recent missile attacks by Iran on Israel highlight the capabilities and weaknesses of the missile defense systems of the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. Analysts view this as providing valuable insights for potential conflicts with China. Although there are differences in the scenarios, the nearly 400 missiles fired by Iran this year offer an indication of what works and what does not. While the attacks test the effectiveness of modern defense systems, experts warn that Beijing's missiles are more challenging to intercept than Iran's. Collin Koh from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies emphasizes that deterrence must involve not only defense but also retaliation. There is currently no immediate threat of a missile war in the Indo-Pacific. The distance and advanced Chinese weapons pose significant challenges. The United States has developed new systems this year to counter China, including AIM-174B air-to-air missiles and the Typhon battery system in the Philippines. Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace highlights that the insights gained from the deployment of missile defense could reduce the chances of conflicts. However, the lack of clear performance data on the systems could lead to massive escalation. While Israel's air and missile defenses are aligned with threats from Iran and others, the U.S. and its allies in the Indo-Pacific face different challenges. China's DF-26 missiles have a range extending to Guam and an accuracy of up to 150 meters, making the region more vulnerable. Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute points out that a large-scale Chinese attack would likely be accompanied by coordinated anti-satellite and cyber-attacks, which adds an additional layer of defense complexity.