Markets
Chip revival in sight: ASML and STMicro on the verge of a comeback
TSMC's optimistic forecast triggers a global rally in chip stocks. SAP results could indicate cloud spending trends.
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TSMC brings euphoria to the global chip industry. SAP revenue predictions may provide insights into cloud spending trends. The clouds seem to be clearing up for the global chip industry after a year of weak demand and geopolitical pressure.
This promises relief for ASML Holding NV and STMicroelectronics NV, who will release their reports next week. While a significant recovery may still take some time, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s optimistic forecast on Thursday could be a sign that the worst of the downturn is over.
The increasing use of artificial intelligence drives demand and more chip factories will be opened in the next two years, according to analyst Ruben Devos from Kepler Cheuvreux. Global chip sales increased in November for the first time in over a year.
An Update from SAP SE, a leader in the global software industry, will be examined for insights into corporate spending trends, while reports from Ericsson AB and Nokia Oyj will reflect both sides of the 5G divide as some telecommunications companies cut budgets for network investments. All eyes will be on the revenue update from LVMH SE to detect signs of a general slowdown in the luxury sector, while Swedbank AB kicks off the reporting season for Nordic banks in the middle of the week.
In the field of food and beverages, Associated British Foods Plc and Remy Cointreau Cointreau SA are expected, as well as the Swiss electronics supplier Logitech International SA and the pharmaceutical active ingredient manufacturer Lonza Group AG.
Monday: No significant income.
Tuesday: The sluggish spending of telecommunications companies is expected to have reduced Ericsson's adjusted EBIT by 20% in the fourth quarter. However, the victory against Nokia in a $14 billion contract with AT&T Inc. in December is expected to give a much-needed boost to the medium-term outlook, according to BI. Investors are also interested in knowing who the new CFO will be, as Carl Mellander's departure is imminent.
Owner of Primark, AB Foods (ABF LN), expected to report a decline in retail growth of around 11% in its first business quarter at unchanged currencies. Growth at the end of the period was likely even slower, as recent data shows that brick-and-mortar stores continue to lag behind online commerce, according to Citi.
An increase in business openings could help attract more customers to their flagship stores, as BI says. The introduction of new gaming products and demand during the Christmas season were likely not enough to offset the difficult comparison with the previous year at Logitech (LOGN SW), although the decline is expected to have slowed by 2.1%.
A stabilization in the coming months would signal a new beginning under the new CEO Hanneke Faber, but advertising costs and the retail-focused product mix could decrease operating profit by at least 50 basis points, according to BI.
Wednesday: ASML's (ASML NV) revenue growth is expected to have declined to just under 8% in the fourth quarter, despite strong Chinese demand before export controls. While revenues could take a break this year, they could pick up again strongly in 2025 as key customer TSMC opens its wallet, according to BI.
ASML receives approximately one third of its revenues from the Taiwanese semiconductor supplier, according to Bloomberg data. The fourth quarter results of SAP (SAP GY) will be examined for indications of the company's interest in cloud migration. BI analyst Anurag Rana says to look out for an initial insight into the goals for 2024, which should show a moderate improvement over 2023. SAP will also benefit this year from customers wanting to migrate their software to the cloud to reduce costs, helping to keep their order backlog above 20%.
The cloud revenue is expected to increase by over 25% to over 17 billion euros. Swedbank's (SWEDA SS) net interest income is expected to have grown by 18% in the last quarter, but that is only about a third of the growth in the previous quarter. As interest rates continue to decline, there could be even more pressure on the key earnings metric in 2024, according to BI.
Even if the bank's CET1 ratio remains well above regulatory requirements, it is unlikely that share buybacks will take place until the money laundering investigation is completed, probably still this year. Thursday: The forecast for 2024 by Nokia (NOKIA FH) will be the most coveted element in their fourth-quarter report, after the Finnish company announced that it had missed its targets last year. Revenue pressure has been building in recent months as operators have postponed investments in 5G technology.
Therefore, Nokia must deliver "ambitious" cost reductions to keep investors on its side, according to BI. LVMH's organic growth for fashion and leather goods probably remained around 9% in the fourth quarter, but wines and spirits continued their decline as demand wanes further after the post-Covid boom.
Any increases this year are likely to be weighted towards the second half, and LVMH will need to manage higher inventory levels in the first six months carefully, said Deborah Aitken from BI. STMicroelectronics' high exposure to the automotive industry should help them meet their forecast, with the consensus estimates expecting the only business segment to show positive growth in the fourth quarter.
The negative impact of US competitor Microchip Technology Inc. at the beginning of this month may be exaggerated. The demand for automotive chips remains strong, especially for electric vehicles, according to Citi. The net interest income of Swedbank competitor SEB (SEBA SS) is expected to have increased by more than 26% in the fourth quarter - the most among Nordic banks - although costs are expected to have risen faster than revenues, according to BI. Analysts Mar'Yana Vartsaba and Philip Richards said that a growth of 2% to 3% in net interest income is expected for the year 2024 as the Riksbank enters a loosening mode.
Friday: It is expected that Remy Cointreau's (RCO FP) organic sales have decreased by 23% in the third quarter, after weak demand in the USA forced the French distillery to lower its full-year forecast in October.
The stock, which has been in a downward spiral since January 2022, is the biggest decliner in the Stoxx Europe 600 Food, Beverage and Tobacco Index this year.