USA lags behind 2030 climate target despite Biden's green subsidies

New analyses reveal that, despite extensive subsidies and climate-friendly regulations under the Biden administration, the USA will not achieve the promised drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. According to research by the Rhodium Group, emissions are expected to decrease only between 32 and 43 percent below 2005 levels by the end of the decade. Although measures could significantly reduce emissions by 2035, they still fall short of the targeted goal of at least 50 percent. The Rhodium Group notes that a record amount of USD 71 billion was invested in clean energy in the first three months of 2024. This represents an increase of 40 percent compared to the same quarter in 2023. Ben King, director at Rhodium, emphasized that while the measures are an important step, they are not sufficient to achieve the long-term goal of decarbonization. These findings highlight the challenges that remain, despite significant legislative successes and new regulations, in limiting global warming to a maximum of 1.5 °C. The current rise in global average temperature is already at least 1.1 °C compared to pre-industrial times. Should Donald Trump win the presidential election in November, he is expected to withdraw from the UN climate agreement again, reversing the progress made so far. The Rhodium Group's projections take into account the impact of $369 billion in clean energy subsidies from the historic Inflation Reduction Act and a range of current environmental regulations by U.S. authorities. The estimated emission reductions were determined by creating three scenarios that include various assumptions about the costs of clean energy and fossil fuels, as well as the economic growth of the United States. A strong decline in emissions is expected between 2023 and 2035, particularly in the energy sector due to the increase in wind and solar energy and the drastic reduction in coal use. New regulations by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are set to reduce transportation sector emissions by up to 34 percent by 2035. The goals also include reducing methane emissions from oil and gas production by up to 28 percent from 2023 to 2035. At the same time, increasing electricity demand from data centers and legal challenges by the U.S. Supreme Court could significantly affect the projected decline in emissions. In June, the Supreme Court restricted the powers of federal agencies, significantly reducing their ability to create rules.