US Liquid Gas Exports 2023: Moderate Growth and Looking to the Future

Exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to increase by only about 2% in 2023, marking the smallest annual growth since 2016. That year saw the opening of the first major U.S. LNG export facility, which laid the foundation for the U.S. to become the leading gas exporter globally. This slowed increase is attributed to delays, production outages, and the lack of new facilities since March 2022, when Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass project in Louisiana came online. This year, a rise in export volume to 12.1 billion cubic feet per day is expected, a decrease compared to a 12% increase the previous year. Between 2018 and 2022, the average growth rate was 43%, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2022, the dollar value of exports reached a peak of $47.33 billion, influenced by the price spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the beginning of 2023, prices dropped, causing the export value to fall to $34.27 billion. A new upswing is forecast for 2024, driven by planned projects that have the potential to increase by about 14% to an estimated 13.8 billion cubic feet per day by 2025. Experts estimate that U.S. LNG capacity could more than double over the next four years. Two major projects are still pending: the Sabine Pass expansion project in Texas by Cheniere Energy and the Plaquemines facility by Venture Global in Louisiana. A third project, the joint venture between QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil called Golden Pass, is delayed due to a contractor's bankruptcy. While the partners forecast commissioning in the second half of 2024, the delay could extend to 2026 according to industry estimates. In 2023, maintenance and other outages at the Freeport LNG plant in Texas limited the growth rate. The output of the second-largest U.S. export facility was reduced by more than half for nearly four months, according to the company and financial data from LSEG.