The Key to the Presidency: Allan Lichtman's Precise Predictions

Allan Lichtman, a professor, historian, and former hurdle runner, has made a name for himself as a political prophet over the last few decades. His method for predicting presidential elections, based on a model he developed in 1981 with geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, has proven remarkably accurate. Lichtman has successfully predicted almost every election since 1984 – an achievement that has garnered significant media attention. In addition to his academic and athletic successes – Lichtman was once a hurdles champion in the 1970s – the professor now dedicates himself primarily to the analysis of political dynamics. His methodology relies on 13 "Keys," major, truth-verifying questions that evaluate the strength and performance of the party in the White House. Only two of these keys refer directly to the candidates; the rest assess the overall political and economic situation. A prime example of the accuracy of Lichtman's model was his prediction of Donald Trump's electoral victories in 2016 and his defeat in 2020. For the upcoming 2024 election, he has published a new forecast: Kamala Harris, currently Vice President, will, in his estimation, become the next President of the United States. The keys that underpin Lichtman's predictive model include economic strength during this and the previous presidential terms, the avoidance of significant scandals, and the avoidance of a major internal party primary battle. Interestingly, he explains that despite a lackluster midterm and President Biden's withdrawal, the Democrats will ultimately retain control of the White House. Lichtman expresses confidence that his 13 keys will hold true even in such a dynamic election year as 2024. In his opinion, there is scarcely any scenario in which Donald Trump could secure enough positive keys for a victory. In the conclusion of his statement, Lichtman calls on the populace to vote – a clear plea for democratic participation. But Lichtman’s impressive capabilities are not limited to the political arena: he recently qualified for the Senior Olympics 2025, further affirming his diverse abilities.