Sudan: A Global Chessboard in Civil War

Amid the civil war in Sudan, where President General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his military are contesting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by warlord Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti, it has emerged that both Russian and Ukrainian fighters are battling on the side of the Sudanese armed forces. Formerly active Ukrainian pilots and Russian snipers are operating as trainers and fighters in the service of the Sudanese army, further complicating the entangled web of external actors in the brutal conflict. While Russia has long sought to gain influence in Sudan, the involvement of former Ukrainian military personnel underscores how the conflict attracts various actors seeking financial or geopolitical advantages. Conversely, the RSF is accused of employing mercenaries from various countries, including Chad, the Central African Republic, and Libya. Unlike the war in Ukraine, which has clear geopolitical frontiers, the situation in Sudan is far more opaque. Nations are vying for resources and strategically important coastal areas of the Red Sea. Notably, Russia and Iran are striving to solidify their presence in the region. A Sudan expert and Western diplomat predicted that the conflict would further escalate and grow more complex. Despite official denials from Khartoum, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense confirmed the presence of Ukrainian 'instructors.' Russian snipers, however, are reportedly part of the Russian military, according to an insider. Russia has intensified its military engagement in Africa, particularly in the Central African Republic and more recently in Sudan. These operations are coordinated by a group called Africa Corps, which operates in the wake of the Wagner Group founded by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. Moscow has recently increased its diplomatic contacts with Port Sudan, where Sudanese military officers have been stationed. Talks about establishing a Russian naval base on the Red Sea have been resumed, suggesting that Russia is now backing General Burhan after relations with Hemeti became more uncertain. Opaque power shifts, like those currently executed by Russian and Ukrainian sides in Sudan, illustrate that external actors will continue to seek to expand their influence in this region. Despite existing UN sanctions and a recently extended arms embargo, weapons from countries such as Iran, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates continue to reach Sudan. A recently spotted unmarked Russian cargo plane of type Ilyushin Il-76TD on the tarmac in Port Sudan, which previously handled military deliveries for sanctioned Russian facilities, raises concerns over further escalation of the conflict. Sudan stands at the crossroads of international interests, significantly complicating the resolution of the conflict. Tom Perriello, the US Special Envoy for Sudan, has once again called for all external actors to cease their interventions in the conflict. The increasing interventions and ongoing support for the conflicting parties by foreign powers make the path to conflict resolution increasingly fraught.