Stormy Times for the US Labor Market: Surprisingly Weak Numbers and Political Tension

The U.S. labor market is the focus of political discussions, as the latest employment statistics are quite startling: far fewer jobs were created in October than expected. Although weather disruptions and strikes were known obstacles, the report is being used as a powerful discussion point in the final stretch of the 2024 U.S. election campaign. While the White House and supporters of Kamala Harris emphasize the 'turbulent' nature of the report, the Trump camp leverages the low numbers for criticism and spreads unfounded allegations of manipulation. Jason Miller, a Trump advisor, called the figures a 'disaster' for Harris and drew parallels to supposedly manipulated numbers from the Harris-Biden administration. These discussions cap a week full of economic news. Even though economic growth and inflation data were largely within the expected range, the labor market disappointed with only 12,000 new jobs in October, significantly missing the forecasts of 100,000. The unemployment rate stagnated at 4.1%. Allies of Harris tried to downplay the numbers throughout the week. Citing external estimates, Jared Bernstein, chair of President Biden's Economic Council, explained that strikes and weather-related events could have reduced the employment change by up to 100,000 jobs. However, even the dampened expectations were ultimately not met. Julie Su, acting U.S. Secretary of Labor, pointed out that the report was based on a shortened review period and expressed hope for the future resilience and strength of the labor market. A silver lining for the Harris campaign remains the continuous job creation during Biden's tenure.