Gloomy Picture: US Job Market Remains Subdued in October

The latest job report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is causing uncertainty: In October, only 12,000 new jobs were added outside of agriculture. As a result, employment remains virtually unchanged compared to the previous month. The average monthly increase over the last 12 months was at least 194,000 new jobs. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, notes that such low numbers were last recorded in December 2020. The trends of previous months were also revised downwards: August now shows only 78,000 new jobs instead of 159,000, and September dropped from 254,000 to 223,000. With the slight change in October, the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%, which corresponds to 7 million unemployed people. For comparison: A year ago, the rate was 3.8%, and 6.4 million people were without a job. Despite the sluggish growth, the healthcare sector showed notable increases with 52,000 new jobs, as did the government sector with 40,000 jobs. In contrast, the industrial sector lost 46,000 jobs, partly due to strikes. Mark Fleming of First American explains temporary influences such as storms Helene and Milton and the Boeing strike as possible distortions of the numbers. While large waves of layoffs are absent, according to Mike Fratantoni from the Mortgage Bankers Association, a slow hiring process can be observed. The construction industry recorded an increase of 8,000 jobs in October. Notably, the non-residential specialty trade sector boomed with 14,300 new jobs, while the residential construction sector struggled. There were also slight increases in the real estate sector: with 1,300 new jobs, 600 of which were in the pure real estate field. Despite the unexpected outcome, the majority of economists firmly expect a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at their next meeting.