Scholz before the vote of confidence: Political calculation and upcoming new elections

The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a decisive week as he is expected to lose a vote of confidence in parliament. For the SPD politician, however, this defeat deliberately marks the beginning of a planned step towards early new elections after declaring the end of his three-party coalition last month. The dismissal of his former Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner on November 6 led to a loss of parliamentary majority, as the Greens, previously a coalition partner, are now keeping their distance. Differences over the budget and the bleak economic outlook for the Eurozone further fueled this decision. Under the German constitution, only the chancellor can pose such a vote of confidence, which serves as a mechanism to dissolve parliament and initiate new elections. Since 1949, this option has been used only five times, with new elections following three times. Notable examples from history include Willy Brandt and Helmut Kohl, both of whom won their subsequent elections, while Gerhard Schröder was defeated by Angela Merkel in 2005. However, an announcement by some AfD parliamentarians who, for tactical reasons, want to vote for the chancellor to delay the election in favor of Friedrich Merz from the CDU, could cause a surprise. According to polls, Merz is the leading candidate and supports the delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine—a step the AfD rejects. After the expected defeat in the vote of confidence and corresponding confirmation by Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the election campaign for February 23 could begin. Voters are facing a stagnating economy and potential US trade sanctions in the middle of winter. Key election campaign issues are expected to be arms deliveries to Ukraine and immigration policy. Current polls see the CDU with a clear lead over SPD, Greens, and FDP. Nevertheless, Merz will likely need to rely on a coalition, possibly with the SPD or Greens. Meanwhile, Scholz aims to profile his party with a focus on social issues and infrastructure investments, as well as a more defensive stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine compared to Merz.