Political Tug-of-War: What Is at Risk of Failing and What Could Still Be Passed?

Since the unexpected collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition in November, the German government has lacked a parliamentary majority, stalling the implementation of numerous planned laws. However, there is hope: some laws could still be passed before the snap elections in February. The Free Democrats (FDP), who were once part of the coalition, have signaled that they are willing to support certain advanced legislative proposals. Scholz plans to hold a vote of confidence on Monday and sees opportunities for joint efforts to pass urgent measures before the election on February 23. A glimmer of hope is the agreement reached on Friday by the former coalition parties SPD, Greens, and FDP on tax relief and increased child benefits. According to the draft law, these include tax relief amounting to over 11 billion euros for the years 2025 and 2026 and an increase in child benefits by five euros to 255 euros per month. Another potential law is the popular Germany ticket. This measure would allow unlimited travel in local and regional transport for a monthly flat rate and still requires approval for the required budget of 1.5 billion euros for the next year. The conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz is showing a willingness to cooperate. Measures to strengthen the Federal Constitutional Court could also find support. The court structure could become vulnerable if the next Bundestag is blocked by populist parties. Meanwhile, the planned promotion of hydrogen power plants might fall by the wayside. Time is running out to get it through the parliamentary process before the election. Similarly, the budget planning for 2025 is unlikely to be completed, although a provisional budget based on previous drafts could serve. Extending the rent cap until 2029 is also viewed skeptically due to resistance from conservative ranks. The planned reduction in VAT on food is also finding little support among opposition parties. Planned reforms in pensions and electricity transmission costs are also on uncertain ground as there is a lack of cross-party support to turn these ambitious projects into law.