NATO Confirms Ukraine's Membership: An Unchanging Path with Uncertain Consequences

The path of Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – once a distant goal before Russia's large-scale invasion – is now "irreversible," as members of the alliance stated from Washington this week. However, while NATO leaders issued this bold declaration in a communiqué, many Ukrainian officials and analysts expressed that promises without actions are insufficient and that the summit had done little to fundamentally change the course of the war. While the public show of solidarity was welcomed, it would do little to address the profound uncertainties facing both Ukraine and the Western alliance. "There will be many opinions, assessments, and comments about the NATO Summit in Washington," wrote Valeriy Chaly, former Ukrainian ambassador to the United States and head of the Ukraine Crisis Media Center, in a statement. "In short: The summit could have truly been historic, but it will not be." While Ukrainian officials expressed deep gratitude for the reiterated military support commitments and the hope that some of the security arrangements announced at the summit could shape future peace negotiations, many said that the failure to formally invite Ukraine to NATO was symptomatic of a deeper indecision in the West regarding its response to President Vladimir V. Putin's invasion. Added to this was the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election in the United States. "Everyone is waiting for November," including Mr. Putin, said President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in an address at the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington on Wednesday.