Israel and Hezbollah on a collision course: Escalation in the Middle East

Amid rising tensions between Israel and the Hezbollah militia, the Israeli military conducted airstrikes on southern Lebanon on Thursday while simultaneously announcing the thwarting of an Iranian-supported assassination plot. These recent developments are paving the way for a potentially comprehensive war, the likes of which have not been seen for 18 years. A series of explosions destroyed handheld radios used by Hezbollah on Wednesday, leaving a trail of devastation in southern Lebanon. These incidents mark the deadliest day since hostilities flared up between the militias and Israel nearly a year ago in the context of the Gaza War. The day before, hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah to avoid mobile phone surveillance exploded, killing twelve people, including two children, and injuring nearly 3,000 more. While Israel has not officially commented on these attacks, several security sources suggest that the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is likely behind them. Israel views the conflict with Hezbollah, similar to the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as part of a broader regional confrontation with Iran. Iran supports both Hezbollah and armed groups in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Israeli security forces also announced the arrest of an Israeli businessman last month who had participated in meetings in Iran where assassination plans against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Defense Minister, and the head of Shin Bet were discussed. Last week, Shin Bet uncovered a Hezbollah plot targeting former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon. Despite these alarming developments, a spokesperson for the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon said that the situation along the border in terms of fire exchange had not significantly changed. Overnight, Israeli jets and artillery struck multiple targets in southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah arms depots. It was also reported that Israeli civilians were injured by anti-tank rockets from Lebanon, although this has not been officially confirmed. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a realignment of the war on Wednesday, with more resources and military units being shifted to the northern border. This includes the elite 98th Division, which comprises commando and paratrooper elements and was previously deployed in the Gaza conflict. Since the Hamas attack on October 7, Hezbollah has launched rocket attacks on Israel. There have been ongoing skirmishes since then, but they have not escalated into a full-scale war. However, pressure is mounting on the Israeli government to safely return evacuees to their home regions.