The translation of the heading to English is: "Inflation data supports proponents of a slow rate-cutting course by the Fed.

  • Inflation data influences the discussion about the Fed's rate cut path.
  • Hawks within the Fed advocate for a slow tapering in light of robust labor market data.

Eulerpool News·

The latest inflation figures gave new momentum to the hawks within the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index in September rose by 2.4 percent compared to the previous year, slightly above economists' expectations, although it represents a slight slowdown from the 2.5 percent increase in August. A more nuanced look at core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, shows an increase of 3.3 percent – slightly above the expected 3.2 percent and also a tenth of a percentage point higher than in August. This has led Fed observers to conclude that a gradual course in rate cuts is likely to remain – starting with a 50 basis point cut in September. Meanwhile, the probability that the Fed will lower its key interest rates by 25 basis points in November rose to 87 percent. However, hawks' concerns are bolstered by the robust labor market situation and the recent inflation increase, so they may advocate for gradual rate cuts. Some prominent voices among the hawks, such as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, continued to express concerns about price developments. Other analysts and economic players, including Eric Wallerstein from Yardeni Research, speculate that the Fed might pause further measures this year. The background to these debates is a disagreement within the Fed, as revealed by recently published meeting minutes. These document that some members would have even preferred a cut of only 25 basis points in September. In recent weeks, many officials, such as John Williams from the New York Fed and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, have expressed a more cautious approach. The next significant market test will be the labor market report on November 1st. Quincy Krosby from LPL Financial pointed out that future discussions will need to decide which of the Fed's two main tasks – price stability or employment maximization – should take precedence if inflation continues to rise.
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