In Focus: Iran's Oil Infrastructure and the Global Consequences of a Possible Attack

Amid the tense situation in the Middle East, Iran's oil infrastructure is increasingly becoming the focus of international attention. Speculation centers particularly on whether Israel might consider an attack on Iran's energy facilities. President Biden recently noted that corresponding discussions are already underway, which has driven up oil prices on global markets. Although most nations avoid Iran's oil due to international sanctions against Tehran, China remains a significant exception. More than 90 percent of Iranian oil exports go to China — a crucial financial flow for Iran, bringing in approximately two billion dollars monthly. This not only accounts for five percent of Iran's total economic output but also ensures the country's solvency in international markets. China, relying on imports for three-quarters of its oil consumption, would have to look to global markets in case of an Iranian supply disruption, highlighting its position as the world's largest oil importer and consumer after the USA. China is increasingly relying on alternative energy sources and technologies to reduce its oil dependency. Analyses suggest that China sources an estimated 15 percent of its oil imports from Iran. However, should Iran halt supplies, other oil-rich countries could fill the supply gap. The member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) already have unused production capacities. Experts therefore believe that China would suffer little damage even in the event of a possible long-term failure of Iranian supplies. A potential conflict could also escalate in other directions, particularly on the sea routes through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. A blockade of this route by Iran would have serious global economic consequences, although China has built up extensive oil reserves in recent years to bridge short-term supply gaps. Increasingly, the focus of discussion is not only on the potential attack but particularly on Iran's reactions to such measures. Experts agree that the global impacts could ultimately depend on Iran's response to a possible escalation.