Global Trade Outlook: Maersk Predicts Increasing Trade Conflicts

Vincent Clerc, CEO of AP Møller-Maersk, anticipates increased trade tensions following the US elections, as trade flows from China increasingly diverge from those of the US and Europe. Maersk's solid export growth from China and Southeast Asia led the company to raise its annual forecast for the fourth time, while exports from Europe and North America were weaker. The company, regarded as a barometer of global trade, transports 20 percent of the world's containers. Maersk benefited from recent freight rate increases, triggered by attacks from Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, which extended shipping routes. Clerc is concerned about a potential trade war between the US and China, especially if Donald Trump were to be re-elected. In the third quarter, Maersk's operating profit increased more than sixfold to $3.3 billion. Originally a loss was forecast, but now a profit between $5.2 and $5.7 billion is expected for the year. Clerc attributes the demand mainly to consumer spending and sees Maersk's dependence in this regard, as consumer sentiment in the US is stronger than in Europe. The events of recent years, particularly the pandemic and geopolitical uncertainties, have led to an above-average increase in demand while simultaneously adjusting trade routes and production locations. Nevertheless, Maersk is concerned about the prevailing trade imbalance, while the company remains optimistic despite all challenges.