Gas Prices in Focus: What Impact Could a Possible Trump Return Have?

The debate over gasoline prices often gains momentum during election campaigns, as presidential candidates like Donald Trump promise to lower fuel costs. However, in reality, the U.S. President has limited influence on whether prices at the pump rise or fall. While the President can indirectly influence gasoline prices through certain political measures and laws, the prices are primarily dependent on oil prices, and thus on supply and demand. If Trump were to be re-elected and introduce new guidelines for the production or procurement of gasoline or crude oil, this could also impact production costs and ultimately prices for consumers. According to Chuck Warren, a political economist and host of the political podcast "Breaking Battlegrounds," Trump favors strategies to increase domestic production and reduce regulatory hurdles for companies working with fossil fuels. Such policies could lead to lower gasoline prices. Warren asserts that Trump's potential measures could have short- and long-term effects on gasoline prices. In the short term, this could result in a general reduction in oil prices, while in the long term, prices could remain low—not solely because of the presidency but also due to external factors such as environmental conditions and market fluctuations. Looking at history, it can be seen that the U.S. President is not the main factor for gasoline prices. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, oil prices surged due to supply concerns. During this period, President Biden sought to alleviate the situation by releasing gasoline reserves, which may have at least slowed the rapid price increase. A glance at the past decades shows that gasoline prices have generally risen since 1993, regardless of who was in the White House. The largest price drop occurred during the 2008 financial crisis, which was due to economic turmoil and not the presidency. While a potential Trump comeback could indeed be significant for domestic oil production and deregulation, the long-term effects on gasoline prices remain influenced by various external factors. The current average price of $3.60 per gallon in July 2024 indicates that prices have risen again after a decline in June 2022, largely independent of political leadership.