Dramatic Power Shift in Bangladesh: The End of Sheikh Hasina

Sheikh Hasina, who had served as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh for 15 years, was unexpectedly forced to resign following weeks of protests and a violent weekend. Her resignation culminated on Monday with a chaotic assault on her residence and her forced escape from the country by the military. During her tenure, Hasina, 76, transformed Bangladesh into a both an economic success story and a cautionary tale about the pitfalls of authoritarian rule. While growing exports of textiles and other goods lifted millions out of poverty, her increasing suppression of political opponents planted the seeds of her downfall. The future of the country remains uncertain. The military, familiar with coups, now plans to establish an interim government without Hasina’s Awami League, which won about 80% of the parliamentary seats in a boycotted election in January. President Mohammed Shahabuddin promised early elections, but it is unclear whether Hasina’s allies will be allowed to participate. In the best-case scenario, the military will follow the 2007 model, when an interim government peacefully handed over power to Hasina's party following an election. However, the outcome remains uncertain. Bangladesh could also face a prolonged period of military rule or further violence as various factions vie for power. Following Hasina's flight, widespread looting and arson took place. Protest leaders have proposed the Nobel laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus as interim leader, but Yunus' legal troubles under Hasina have been described as politically motivated. For neighboring India, the events pose significant risks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government viewed Hasina as an ally against the Islamist opposition in Bangladesh. India facilitated Hasina’s safe landing in New Delhi and planned her onward travel to London. However, it is unclear whether the UK will admit her. Financially, Bangladesh remains under pressure: Despite a $4.7 billion loan from the IMF, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings have further downgraded the country's credit rating to junk. Talks about a 5 billion yuan loan from China add to the uncertainty. Protests against Hasina began over controversial quotas in the public service and quickly escalated to demands for her resignation. While demonstrators roiled Dhaka, the military refused to use force against them. On Monday, Hasina fled by helicopter as demonstrators stormed and looted her residence. Hasina's downfall was a long-anticipated development for many. Despite international recognition for economic progress and humanitarian measures, her authoritarian policies faced increasing criticism. Western diplomats valued her efforts to exclude Islamists from politics and provide refuge for Myanmar refugees. However, her crackdown on opponents and questionable electoral practices tarnished her legacy. Following the main opposition's recent election boycott and US criticism of the election, the protests reflect the clear opinion of a significant portion of the 171 million citizens. “Bangladesh has entered uncharted territory,” said Ali Riaz, a political scientist at Illinois State University. “How quickly the country returns to civilian government or moves towards it is the biggest challenge.”