The Southeastern USA and the Caribbean may face an unusually intense hurricane season this summer, warned by Anja Rädler, storm and climate expert at Munich Re. "In the North Atlantic, we expect significantly above-average storm activity," explains Rädler, based on the analysis of currently very high water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and an upcoming La Niña phase in the western Pacific, which favors the formation of tropical cyclones.
The forecasts are particularly worrying: Up to 27 named storms are expected, up to 14 of which could develop into full-fledged hurricanes. These could reach wind speeds of strength twelve or more. For comparison: The long-term average is about 15 storms.
The increased risk does not only pertain to hurricanes but also to tornadoes and hail, particularly in North America. A significant example of the potential costs of such storms is Hurricane "Ian," which caused damage of about 100 billion dollars in 2022, of which 60 billion were insured.
The Munich Re, which documents natural disasters through its geoscientific department, points out that storms in North America often cause higher insured losses than in many Asian countries, which is due to a higher insurance penetration in Western industrial nations.
Rädler adds that tropical cyclones require at least a sea water temperature of 26 to 27 degrees Celsius for formation, a condition that has been regularly met in the North Atlantic for the past one and a half years. She notes that "the water temperatures are at record highs and the weather models almost agree that we will enter a La Niña phase this summer, which could start in July."
The heading, translated to English, would likely be:
"These Predictions Are Key Information for the Insurance Industry and Affected Regions, as They Influence Planning and Preparedness and Help to Estimate the Financial Impact of Such Events"
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