The demand for heat pumps drastically declined in 2024. According to the Federal Heat Pump Association (BWP), sales fell by 46 percent to 193,000 units – far from the federal government's target of 500,000 units per year. In the previous year, 356,000 heat pumps were installed. Nevertheless, the industry remains optimistic: The number of funding commitments rose to over 151,000, indicating growing interest.

The association sees the cause of the slump primarily in the lack of awareness of funding programs and the uncertainty caused by political debates surrounding the Building Energy Act (GEG). "Many manufacturers are in a difficult situation following the decline in demand," explained BWP Chairman Claus Fest. Companies had invested over seven billion euros in production capacities, skilled workers, and training in anticipation of a continued boom.

Particularly medium-sized companies in the heating industry have created jobs in recent years and prepared for international competition. Klaus Ackermann, deputy chairman of the BWP board and managing director of NIBE Systemtechnik GmbH, emphasized the need for political support: "The heat transition must be understood as an opportunity.

The recent uncertainties about a possible withdrawal of the GEG regulations have, according to BWP Managing Director Martin Sabel, led to considerable confusion. The industry demands clear and stable framework conditions to ensure that investments in renewable heating systems do not falter. "Signals of consistency are needed," said Sabel. From 2026 or 2028, new fossil heating systems should only be approved with a clear plan for conversion to renewable energies.

Despite the current market downturn, the industry remains confident that the market could recover with stable political conditions. Funding programs and the ongoing debate on climate-friendly heating alternatives could boost demand again.