Deutsche Post DHL Lowers Profit Targets Despite Revenue Increase in the Third Quarter

Despite increased revenue, Deutsche Post DHL is lowering its profit targets for 2024 and 2026 due to weak mail volumes and regulatory hurdles.

11/6/2024, 9:11 AM
Eulerpool News Nov 6, 2024, 9:11 AM

The Deutsche Post DHL Group recorded an increase in revenue to 20.59 billion euros in the third quarter, compared to around 19.4 billion euros in the previous year. Nevertheless, the profit after taxes decreased to 751 million euros, compared to 807 million euros in the same period of the previous year. Additionally, the free cash flow declined significantly, amounting to 723 million euros, whereas it was 1.074 billion euros in the previous year.

The Bonn logistics company subsequently lowered its operating profit targets (EBIT) for 2024 and 2026. Instead of the previously targeted range of 6.0 to 6.6 billion euros, the company now expects EBIT of over 5.8 billion euros for the entire year 2024. For 2026, an EBIT of more than 7.0 billion euros is targeted. Reasons for the adjustment are weaker economic momentum, a sharper than expected decline in mail volumes, and disappointing margins in air freight forwarding.

Analysts had already doubted that DHL would reach the lower end of the original target range for 2024. The stock continued its downward movement, recently losing 4.04 percent to 35.84 euros. Since the interim high in August, the price has fallen by 15 percent.

CEO Tobias Meyer and CFO Melanie Kreis criticized the preliminary decision by the Federal Network Agency, which proposes a postage increase of 10.5 percent from 2025, as insufficient. Meyer did not rule out a lawsuit against the decision: "We will consider whether to take legal action against it or not." Both emphasized that the approved increase margin is not sufficient to achieve the goals of the Postal Modernization Act. While the cumulative postage increase margin amounts to 15.6 percent, inflation in the same period has risen by 20.6 percent.

Meyer made it clear that the company will not invest more in the mail business than it earns: "It is clear, we will not invest more in the mail business in Germany than we earn." CFO Kreis added that the additional parcel business cannot compensate for the deficit in the mail business.

The volume trend in the third quarter presented a mixed picture. While volumes in the express business and the German mail business declined, the freight division showed a positive development.

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