US President Biden Under Pressure: New Challenges in the Middle East Conflict

Joe Biden faces the challenge of easing the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The recent death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, responsible for the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, could serve as leverage for the U.S. President to persuade Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change his course in the Gaza Strip. However, given the circumstances pressing at the end of his term, Biden's influence might be limited. Sinwar's death has raised hopes of resuming long-stalled negotiations for a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages between Israel and the Palestinians. Nevertheless, the path to such an agreement remains uncertain, as Biden faces a multitude of crises in the Middle East. Israel's parallel conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon and potential retaliatory measures against Iran add further strain. U.S. efforts to push Israel towards improving the humanitarian situation in Gaza could be undermined by uncertainties regarding the consequences of their threats. Analysts speculate that Netanyahu might wait out the end of Biden's term to potentially negotiate more favorable conditions with a new U.S. President. Critics, however, point to Netanyahu's rigid stance on a ceasefire and internal political tensions within Israel's coalition. Furthermore, it remains unclear who within Hamas might take over Sinwar's role and thus act as a negotiating partner. Looking ahead, some experts predict an escalation of violence rather than a relaxation, as geopolitical tensions in the region remain high.