US Presidential Elections: Markets Caught Between Harris and Trump

The upcoming U.S. presidential elections on November 5 are drawing the attention of investors, as polls indicate a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris's lead over Trump has diminished to a one-percentage-point margin in the final stages of the campaign. Analysts largely believe that a return of Trump could boost the stock markets. In particular, a divided government is seen by some as advantageous. Both cryptocurrency firms and small businesses have seen gains in the lead-up to the election. Trump's promises to cut corporate taxes and reduce regulations could invigorate the markets in the short term if he wins, according to Todd Morgan of Bel Air Investment Advisors. At the same time, Trump plans to tighten trade tariffs, especially against China, and withdraw unused funds from a Biden-Harris climate law that includes significant subsidies for green technologies. A split Congress could, according to Brian Klimke of Cetera Investment Management, limit the president's options and constrain budget spending. Potential impacts on selected sectors and companies: * Banks: A Trump victory could lift Wall Street banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo through loosened regulations and tax cuts, although concerns about trade deficits persist. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lazard, and Evercore could benefit from M&A opportunities. * Cryptocurrencies: A "more open" regulatory environment under a Trump victory could favor cryptocurrency companies. Beneficiary stocks include MicroStrategy, Riot Platforms, MARA Holdings, Hut 8, and Bit Digital, which recorded significant gains in October. * Energy: A Trump administration could focus on reducing regulatory barriers in domestic oil and gas production while considering more restrictive trade measures.