US Election 2024: A Balancing Act for World Politics

In the lead-up to the 2024 US elections, Donald Trump has promised on the campaign trail to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. JD Vance, who is being considered for the position of Vice President, outlined in September what this could mean. A potential division of Ukraine is being discussed, in which the eastern regions would fall to Russia and a NATO membership for Ukraine would be ruled out. Such ideas contradict the plans of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but could align with Vladimir Putin's interests. Trump faces the challenge of carefully shaping the dynamics of the negotiations. Putin has always been interested in a zero-sum game: a victory for Moscow would simultaneously mean a defeat for Ukraine and its Western allies, led by the USA. However, opportunities for an alternative approach do exist. Putin has the chance to improve his international standing through cooperation with the USA and to gain relief from the oppressive sanctions. Therefore, Trump could demand significant concessions from Moscow. One possible approach would be a ceasefire agreement similar to the arrangement with West Germany after World War II, where territorial integrity is not considered final. Also, NATO membership should not be categorically excluded, but linked to long-term, defined processes. A parallel approach to the already initiated EU accession talks could provide a solution here. Additionally, the USA could demand that Russia is ready to renegotiate nuclear arms control and strategic stability. Although these were suspended by Putin until Western aid for Ukraine is halted, renewed dialogue remains in the interest of both sides. Success in these negotiations could endow Trump with the image of the ultimate peacemaker and dealmaker. It is crucial that Trump does not suffer a setback in these negotiations. Putin will be ready to make concessions that avoid losing face. This potential could offer a way out of the existing conflict without anyone emerging severely defeated from the war.