Tariff Fantasies: Donald Trump's Trade Strategy Visions for 2024

Donald Trump is once again relying on extensive import tariffs to score politically and enforce economic policy agendas. During his first term in 2018, his tariffs targeted imports from China to counter the high trade deficit with China. Now, in his second campaign, the focus is shifting: the fight against illegally produced fentanyl in China, which contributes to the opioid crisis in the U.S., is to be penalized with new tariffs. But China is not the only focus: Trump is threatening Mexico with 25% on all imports if migrant flows and fentanyl smuggling are not curbed. Surprisingly, Canada is also receiving a similar threat, despite the comparatively low number of unauthorized immigrants. However, China faces yet another tariff threat: if the fentanyl trade does not decline, tariffs of up to 60% on all imports could be imposed. A unified currency of the "BRICS" nations could even result in tariffs of 100%. Trump's "baseline" for all imports worldwide should be 10%. In his campaign statements, Trump went even further and considered tariffs of 200% on auto transport from Mexico to block the import of Mexican vehicles. Agricultural machinery could also be affected if John Deere products continue to be manufactured in Mexico. His visions even extend to completely abolishing income taxes in favor of increased revenue from tariffs. Economic experts are skeptical of the plans. The burden of tariffs ultimately falls on American businesses and consumers. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump's tariffs could cost families over $2,600 annually in increased expenses. The American economy is also not unharmed by possible retaliations from other countries. However, investors are warned: Trump's drastic bluffs often turned out to be bluffs in the past. During his 2016 presidential campaign, he announced tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese goods, only to finally impose targeted tariffs between 7.5% and 25% that spared essential consumer goods.