Secret Diplomacy Between the USA and China: A Look Behind the Scenes

Three months after the escalation involving a Chinese spy balloon, which brought relations between the USA and China to their lowest point since 1979, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan initiated his own covert mission. On May 10, 2023, Sullivan flew to Vienna to meet with Wang Yi, the experienced Chinese diplomat and top foreign policy official. In the historical setting of the Imperial Hotel, they held discussions over eight hours across two days. These meetings were the beginning of a series of secret engagements in various countries like Malta and Thailand, now known as the "strategic channel." On Tuesday, Sullivan will travel to Beijing for further talks with Wang. This secret channel has played a crucial role in managing the relations between the rival superpowers during a time of great tension. While the USA competed with China and Beijing oscillated between confidence and paranoia, the channel acted as a buffer that helped prevent miscalculations. Although it did not resolve the fundamental issues, the channel facilitated mutual understanding through personal encounters. "In the short term, it was very successful in stabilizing the relationship, communicating red lines, and previewing actions that could be perceived as harmful," says Rorry Daniels of the Asia Society Policy Institute. The balloon incident was just one of many events straining the relationship. China was displeased with U.S. export controls on semiconductors, while Washington was upset over China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine. These issues accumulated against the sensitive backdrop of the Taiwan question. Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August 2022 and the subsequent Chinese military maneuvers further escalated tensions. Vienna was chosen as neutral ground where both sides could meet without great attention. A U.S. official described the meetings as "fairly spartan": In, into the hotel, talks, out. The goal was to stabilize bilateral relations, as agreed upon at the G20 summit in Bali. The meeting in Vienna marked a new beginning. The participants emphasized that such discussions are important to clear up misunderstandings and avoid escalations. In September 2023, Wang and Sullivan met again in Malta. The focus was on preparing for a possible meeting between Biden and Xi during the APEC summit in San Francisco. In both Vienna and Malta, difficult topics such as U.S. sanctions and technology policy were discussed. While the fundamental differences remain, these meetings have helped to restore relations to the "Bali consensus." Wang visited Washington in October to finalize preparations for the San Francisco summit. Despite internal criticism in Washington, both sides are convinced that the channel serves a valuable role. Wang and Sullivan last met in December in Bangkok to discuss technology controls and Taiwan. As long as the channel exists, conflicts may be avoided, much to the relief of U.S. allies in Europe and Asia. The personalities of those involved are also significant. Both Sullivan and Wang are known as tough but respectful negotiators. This dynamic has helped foster understanding and minimize misunderstandings.