Russia and Ukraine: Drone Attack Flanks Capture of Ukrainsk

On Wednesday, Ukraine reported that it had attacked a large Russian ammunition depot with drones, with videos showing fireballs illuminating the night sky. The attack came just hours after the Russian military announced the capture of the city of Ukrainsk, as Moscow continues its slow but steady advance in eastern Ukraine. The capture of Ukrainsk, confirmed by geolocated footage analyzed by independent groups, brings Russia one step closer to its long-held goal of seizing the entire eastern Donetsk region, which it already partially controls. Ukrainsk, once home to 10,000 residents, lies on the route to the city of Kurakhove, an important defensive stronghold. The capture of Ukrainsk and the Ukrainian drone attacks on the northwestern Russian city of Toropets highlight one of the main dynamics of the war in recent months: Russian forces are gaining ground in Ukraine, while Kyiv tries to disrupt this progress with attacks on military bases and warehouses crucial to Russian operations. Igor Rudenya, governor of the western Russian region Tver, which includes Toropets, said in a statement that the city had become the target of a “massive drone attack," but did not mention the ammunition depot. He said that debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone had sparked a fire. He did not specify what was burning, but the damage was so significant that he ordered a partial evacuation of Toropets residents. A representative of the Ukrainian security services said that drones had hit a "large warehouse" in Toropets that contained weapons such as Iskander missiles and guided bombs known as KABs. This claim could not be independently verified. NASA satellites detected several fires in the area, which, according to independent analysts monitoring open-source images, corresponded to the location of a large ammunition depot. Toropets is nearly 300 miles north of Ukraine, and the reach of the attack would be evidence of Kyiv’s improved long-range drone capabilities. Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group that analyzes satellite images and battlefield footage, said, “The depot indeed exploded,” but added that it remains unclear whether this was directly attributable to a Ukrainian attack. The Russian Ministry of Defense said the country had been attacked overnight by dozens of Ukrainian drones and added that it had shot down 54 of them over various regions. However, the agency did not mention the Tver region or the fires in Toropets in its report. If confirmed, the attack would be the latest in a series of strikes on airfields, military factories, and oil refineries in recent months and another attempt by Kyiv to undermine Russian military actions and disrupt Moscow’s advances on the battlefield. Since the early months of this year, Russian troops have made steady progress in eastern Ukraine, capturing towns, villages, and settlements in often bloody fighting. After the Russian advance toward Pokrovsk, a strategic rail and road hub, stalled in recent days, the Russian military has shifted its focus south of this area, toward Kurakhove. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 49 Russian attacks around Kurakhove in the past day on Wednesday. On Thursday, Ukraine’s 46th Air Assault Brigade stated that Russia had launched four waves of attacks toward the city, involving a total of 46 military vehicles, including tanks. The brigade reported that the attacks had been repelled. The recent capture of Ukrainsk, which Ukraine has not commented on, could facilitate Russia’s approach to Kurakhove from the north. Russian troops are also advancing from the east in a pincer movement, increasing pressure on the city. In the spring, Ukrainian forces built a network of trenches and tank traps around Kurakhove in anticipation of future attacks following the loss of nearby towns.