Renewed Dynamics in Syria's Civil War: Rebels on the Advance

In a surprisingly strong push, Islamist rebels in Syria have launched the largest offensive in years against the troops of President Bashar al-Assad. They succeeded in capturing at least 15 villages and attacking military sites as they advanced towards the city of Aleppo. The offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied groups in northwestern Syria, represents the first serious challenge to Assad since the ceasefire brokered by Moscow and Ankara in 2020. The Syrian army described the current offensive as a large-scale terrorist attack using medium and heavy weapons. HTS and other factions control the last opposition-held area after Assad crushed the rebellion that emerged from the 2011 unrest, which was supported by Iran and Russia. According to HTS, their fighters have captured 100 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of the assault. The military developments reflect a shift in power dynamics as Syria increasingly becomes an arena for major powers under international influence. Iran and Russia support Assad, while Turkey backs the rebels in opposition areas. A small number of American troops are also on the ground to aid in the fight against the Islamic State. Notably, Israel has intensified attacks against Iranian-backed militias since the Hamas attacks last October. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently warned Assad that he is "playing with fire." The rebels are capitalizing on the current global attention: "When else do you get the world, the U.S., Israel, and everyone else to act against their rivals?" asked Dareen Khalifa from the Crisis Group. Ömer Özkizilcik from the Atlantic Council commented that the most significant gain could be severing the M5 highway, a strategic lifeline for Syria. A success by the rebels could secure Idlib and reduce the regime's firepower by enabling better targeting of sensitive sites. While Aleppo was once considered a rebel stronghold, the city was recaptured by Assad's regime in 2016 after a months-long siege and intense Russian airstrikes. Sunni groups in the northwest responded to intensified attacks by pro-government forces with a series of airstrikes to push back the rebels. Amid these clashes, Israel is seizing the opportunity for its own military actions, mainly against Iranian-allied Shiite groups in Syria like the Lebanese Hezbollah. According to Syrian state media, dozens of people were killed there in recent attacks. The offensive began just one day after Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, despite attempts at rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus. In light of the failed normalization, Turkish forces appear to be silently supporting the push. Najat Rochdi recently warned the UN Security Council that this year in Syria could potentially become the most violent since 2020. "The potential for even greater devastation is present," she cautioned.