The translation of the heading to English is: "Ongoing Concerns About France's Budget Plans Weigh on the Bond Market.
- Political uncertainty could affect economic results and market behavior.
- Skepticism towards France's budget plans drives bond yields up.
Eulerpool News·
The recently presented budget plans of France encounter skepticism among bond experts, which could lead to ongoing challenges in the country's financing costs. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, the French government plans savings and tax increases amounting to 60 billion euros. The goal is to maintain the country's credibility despite a deficit of over 6 percent of GDP and an alarmingly high debt ratio – only Greece and Italy fare worse in the Eurozone.
The tense situation has led to an increase in the yields on French government bonds, with the 10-year rate currently above 3 percent, surpassing that of Spain. This also reflects the risk premium demanded by investors compared to Germany, currently at 0.77 percentage points, approaching a 12-year high.
Some market observers, like Kevin Thozet from Carmignac, criticize the optimistic growth assumptions of the budget and emphasize the political uncertainty. The looming loss of parliamentary support could force the government to deliver better economic results in the coming months to meet its forecasts.
The fragile political stability in France remains concerning for investors like Gareth Hill from Royal London Asset Management. While the formation of a government under Barnier provided relief, upcoming credit ratings and challenging discussions about the budget cloud the market outlook.
In this environment, France plans to issue 300 billion euros in government bonds in 2025, which analysts consider better than expected. However, doubts about the credibility of the deficit plan remain.
Mark Dowding from RBC BlueBay Asset Management views France's political uncertainty as the biggest risk factor. Although BlueBay recently realized gains from bets against French bonds, they continue to monitor the market critically. Ben Lord from M&G Investments also expresses concerns over the fiscal looseness, particularly regarding its effectiveness in the tax area. Modern Financial Markets Data
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