Oil market under pressure in the coming years: An outlook from the US agency

The energy world is watching the coming years with anticipation, as an oversupply could put pressure on oil prices. According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil production growth in 2025 and 2026 is expected to outpace demand. Analysts have already predicted an oversupplied oil market for this year, after demand in major consumer countries the U.S. and China abruptly declined in 2024. The agency forecasts a decline in Brent crude oil prices by 8%, suggesting an average price of 74 USD per barrel in 2025, followed by a further decrease to 66 USD per barrel in 2026. This development could make both oil producers and investors vigilant. Expectations for U.S. oil production were slightly revised upwards, now at 13.55 million barrels per day for this year, a slight increase from the previous estimate of 13.52 million barrels per day. Globally, oil and liquid fuel production is projected to average 104.4 million barrels per day in 2025, slightly increased from the previous forecast of 104.2 million barrels per day. On the demand side, an average need of 104.1 million barrels per day is expected, down from the previous estimate of 104.3 million barrels per day. These figures indicate an interesting dynamic in the global oil market, which could bring both challenges and opportunities for the involved players.