Nuclear Arms Race: China and Russia Increase Nuclear Threat

The People's Republic of China is currently massively expanding its nuclear arsenal and plans to increase the number of its warheads from around 500 to up to 1,500 by 2035. Additionally, China is enhancing its nuclear weapon delivery capabilities, particularly through the construction of 300 new ballistic missile silos near Beijing and the development of new submarines and bombers. All these systems are aimed at the US and its allies. Simultaneously, Russia is engaged in an aggressive war against Ukraine and is once again brandishing its nuclear threats. Russia refuses to comply with and implement the New START Treaty, which aims at reducing nuclear weapons, as long as the US and NATO support Ukraine. Although the Kremlin has committed to adhering to the treaty's limits—1,550 warheads and 700 missiles and bombers—the treaty is set to expire in 2026. Both China and Russia reject discussions with the US on new strategic nuclear arms control measures. The near-apocalyptic experience of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 seems to have faded from the collective memory. Pranay Vaddi, Special Assistant to President Biden for Arms Control, described the serious situation in a speech to the US Arms Control Agency in June: "At least in the short term, the prospects for strategic arms control are bleak (...) Russia and the PRC are not fulfilling their international obligations (...) They are forcing the United States and its close allies to prepare for a world in which nuclear competition occurs without numerical limits." Vaddi emphasized in his speech that the President will expand US nuclear forces if necessary. Such an expansion could bring China and Russia back to the negotiating table, as similar measures have led to successes in the past. The most well-known example is the 1979 decision by the US and its NATO allies to deploy nuclear intermediate-range missiles in Europe to deter Moscow. This led to the 1987 treaty banning land-based intermediate-range missiles, despite later Russian treaty violations. The current US nuclear force modernization program, launched in 2016, aims to replace old missiles, submarines, and bombers with new models and allows for an increase in the arsenal if needed. The timeline for replacing each component of the nuclear triad—land-based missiles, submarines, and bombers—is tight and should be completed between 2035 and 2045 without new requirements. Meanwhile, Washington has the opportunity to move Beijing and Moscow to new negotiations. The easiest way would be if Moscow and Washington continue to adhere to the limits of the expiring treaty in 2026 and agree on new inspections. Vladimir Putin must be convinced that this is in Russia's national security interest. If China indeed reaches 1,500 warheads by 2035 and continues to refuse talks, the US and its allies must consider their own expansion. The widespread fear of the end of nuclear arms control is justified, but there is still time and a compelling responsibility to solve this problem. The worst-case scenario would be if Russia and China are determined to increase their nuclear stockpiles at the expense of global stability. In this case, the US will be ready and able to respond.