New Race for the White House: How Trump's Potential Return Could Affect China's Technology Markets

The upcoming presidential elections in the United States are causing tense anticipation in the Chinese technology sector. While many business leaders favor Kamala Harris for her predictable nature, Donald Trump's unpredictable policies could also open opportunities for China's technology companies, according to more than a dozen analyses from Chinese industry groups and think tanks. Trump, known for his initiative of a trade war with China during his term from 2017 to 2021, could, if he returns to office, impose new export restrictions and sanctions against China's semiconductor sector. The then-U.S. President imposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth billions of dollars and sanctioned companies like the chip manufacturer SMIC and the telecommunications giant Huawei. The immediate impacts could be severe, as particularly suggested by an analysis from Topsperity Securities. Harris, on the other hand, is attributed with a predictable continuation of President Joe Biden's policies. This could lead to stable, yet persistent challenges for China's semiconductor industry in the long term, notes the editorial team of Material Energy Times. Yet, regardless of who wins the election, China's tech economy is far more independent and self-reliant today than at the start of Trump's first term. Aside from restrictions, the trade war also led to a stronger focus on domestic resources. A remarkable example is the significant increase in government projects for the procurement of domestic technologies, as a review of Reuters data shows. Overall, the race for the White House is crucial not only for America but could also sustainably shape China's technological future. For many industry players, the motto is: "Forward, as fast as we can," without being held back by political uncertainties.