Long-term Consequences of Tropical Storms: An Underestimated Global Phenomenon

The latest research published in the prestigious journal Nature reveals a shocking finding: Mortality following tropical storms continues to rise steadily over more than a decade, with causes often being unexpected. Last week, the official death toll from Hurricane Helene exceeded 100 after the storm moved inland from Florida, flooding homes and washing away cars. However, it will be years before the full extent of human suffering becomes apparent—and it could add up to thousands. The study analyzed 501 storm events between 1930 and 2015 in the continental United States. Researchers found that, on average, a tropical storm led to an additional 7,000 to 11,000 deaths in the 15 years following its occurrence. Consequently, deaths from tropical storms during the study period exceeded those from car accidents, infectious diseases, and military actions involving U.S. soldiers. This result starkly contrasts with the average of 24 direct fatalities from hurricanes reported by U.S. authorities. The study authors spent years verifying their calculations to ensure their accuracy. "The scale of these findings is dramatically different from what we expected," commented Solomon Hsiang, Professor of Global Environmental Policy at Stanford University's Doerr School of Sustainability, who conducted the study with Rachel Young, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Berkeley. The research team used a method also applied in identifying "excess deaths" from Covid-19 and heatwaves. This technique examines typical mortality patterns and isolates anomalies that could solely be caused by the variable under investigation—in this case, a significant storm. Previous studies generally focused only on short-term effects, such as increased hospital admissions following hurricanes. One study in Nature, for example, found that older Medicaid patients were more frequently hospitalized in the week after a storm. Further studies, such as those in The Journal of the American Medical Association and The Lancet, also documented increased mortality rates in the first weeks following cyclones.