Election Earthquake in Portugal: Conservatives Gain Lead, Right-Wing Populists on the Rise

Portugal experienced a political sea change as the conservative coalition "Democratic Alliance" (AD) took the lead in the recent parliamentary elections, thereby shaking the eight-year reign of the Socialist Party (PS). Led by Luís Montenegro, the AD may have climbed to an approval rate of up to 33 percent according to reliable voter surveys. The hitherto dominant PS, represented by Pedro Nuno Santos, is likely to have to settle for second place with a forecasted result of up to 29 percent. Furthermore, a significant shift to the right is emerging in Portugal's political spectrum, as the right-wing populist party "Chega" was able to more than double its support. With previous results of about seven percent in the prior vote, the current projection indicates a considerable increase to up to 17 percent. Consensus among various Portuguese media outlets, such as the prestigious "Público," supports these assessments with comparable results. Although the validation of these figures by the final vote count is still pending, should the prediction prove true, the country could face a complicated phase of government formation. Memories are revived of the last election in January 2022, when the PS emerged as the strongest force with 41 percent and secured 120 of the 230 seats in the "Assembleia da República." A repeat of the election had become necessary after President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was forced to take this action in November. This was due to the resignation of the socialist Prime Minister António Costa, which had been triggered by a corruption scandal, leaving Costa only in an acting role in office.