Before European Elections: Union Clearly Ahead in Polls, Downturn for AfD Recorded

The signs point to a change in the political climate of Europe, according to the results of a recent Forsa survey. According to this, the CDU/CSU significantly extends its lead in voter favor and proves itself as a frontrunner on the European stage. With a considerable 34 percentage points, the Conservatives not only surpass their previous European election result but also overtake the current traffic light coalition in the federal government with a one percent lead. An equally notable picture emerges for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which, in contrast to previous forecasts and trends in federal elections, records a decline to 15 percent—a sign of potential political fatigue or a strategic shift among voters. The Social Democrats (SPD), meanwhile, experience a slight enhancement of their position with 16 percent approval, while the Greens must contend with a significant setback, dropping to 14 percent. The Liberals (FDP) must grapple with a modest result of three percent, indicating a decline from the previous European election. Interestingly, the European election does not have a threshold clause like the federal election, which could favor smaller parties, but debates about a potential change to this regulation are in the air. Despite the informative data, the Forsa Institute points to a general uncertainty in election surveys, which is amplified by volatile voting behavior and diminishing party loyalties. A margin of error of three percentage points remains, and as always, these figures only represent a snapshot of the mood at the time of collection and should not be misunderstood as an exact prediction of the election outcome. The European elections are due this year in June and could hold further surprises.