Apple: Optimism defies mixed iPhone sales

The question of whether artificial intelligence (AI) will give Apple's iPhone sales a significant boost remains open. However, even if no notable increases are evident in the short term, many investors do not foresee a rapid decline in the stock, which has reached impressive heights this year. On Monday, Apple shares closed at a record value of $251.04, representing an increase of more than 50% from a low of around $165 in April. This downturn followed the lukewarm launch of Apple Intelligence, the company's AI service for mobile phones. Overall, the stock price has risen 35% over the year, outperforming the S&P 500, which gained 28%, thereby regaining Apple's position as the world's most valuable company. Despite declining iPhone sales, which account for about half of Apple's revenue, optimism remains high. Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan believes this optimism is justified. He forecasts a revenue boost from AI with the expected launch of the iPhone 17 in 2025 and expects sales to rise from 230 million devices in the coming fiscal year to 251 million the following year. Even if these predictions do not materialize, Chatterjee sees a strong bull market for the stock thanks to Apple's robust service business. This includes technical support, content such as Apple Music, News, and TV, as well as payment products like Apple Pay and the company's co-branded credit card. According to Chatterjee, revenue from these services should be more resilient than many investors expect. Whether the famous investor Warren Buffett shares Chatterjee's perspective is unclear. Buffett made headlines this year when he reduced his position in Apple by more than two-thirds, sparking speculation about whether the stock is overvalued. Nonetheless, Buffett's stake of $74 billion remains the largest public position of Berkshire Hathaway. Currently, Apple is trading at 34 times the estimated earnings for the next 12 months, placing it on par with or more expensive than almost all other tech giants of the so-called "Magnificent Seven." Only Amazon at 40 times and Tesla at 140 times the P/E ratio are more expensive. Chatterjee apparently maintains a price target of $265 for Apple stock, which, based on his forecasts for 2026, corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27. He notes that this price-to-earnings ratio is justified as it is consistent with the average of recent years and also sees upside potential in a longer, AI-driven replacement cycle.