In the world of pharmaceutical giants, a spark of legal uncertainty can quickly ignite an inferno. The shareholders of AstraZeneca are currently experiencing this painfully: around 17 billion pounds of market value evaporated at the beginning of the week - a loss of 12 percent of the company's value, triggered by an intensified corruption investigation in China. China is AstraZeneca's second-largest individual market worldwide, and that means red alert.

Einblicke in die Verstrickungen: Mehr als ein Problemherd in China

In China, several things are currently going wrong for AstraZeneca, divided into three problem areas.

Hardly cooled down, nervousness continued to rise: This week, AstraZeneca confirmed that investigations are ongoing against two current and two former executives in China over the suspected illegal import of cancer drugs. And finally: Leon Wang, AstraZeneca's China head and the public face of the company in Asia, was recently arrested by the authorities. A bombshell that raises questions and lacks transparency about the causes.

Ein Déjà-vu: Erinnerungen an GSKs Strafe

The specter of AstraZeneca's fate in China evokes unpleasant memories of 2014, when the British rival GlaxoSmithKline had to pay almost 500 million dollars in fines after a similarly explosive corruption case. At that time, the 15-month investigation by Chinese authorities brought GSK's reputation to a nadir and caused long-lasting damage.

The current accusations are not directed at AstraZeneca itself, but at individuals. However, the parallels are unmistakable – and unsettling. AstraZeneca emphasizes that it will fully cooperate if requests come from the authorities.

Was bedeutet das für Chinas Bedeutung im Konzern?

The dependency on China is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it is a huge market, but on the other hand, legal uncertainties threaten the revenues from this very market. In 2025, AstraZeneca is estimated to generate around 625 to 750 million dollars in operating profit from its oncology business in China. This amounts to less than five percent of the projected corporate profit. However, a decline in these revenues would create noticeable gaps.

AstraZeneca's CEO Pascal Soriot has ambitious goals – by 2030, annual revenues are expected to increase from 45.8 to 80 billion dollars. This relies on a portfolio of promising drugs, the clinical successes of which are still pending. This new crisis in China could further increase the burden on Soriot's shoulders.

Ein Fazit mit Fragezeichen

Will This "China Scare" Have Long-term Effects on AstraZeneca?