Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) has until Monday to submit offers for the broadcasting rights of the American Basketball League NBA or lose them, with the value of the rights expected to rise to approximately $75 billion over eleven years.

Negotiations between the league and the media company, whose TNT network has been broadcasting NBA games since the 1980s, are a crucial moment for the future of live sports broadcasting rights. A lot is at stake for WBD: The company could lose its central live sports program, which would have serious implications given the changes in the media landscape.

Last week, NBA team owners approved bids from Disney, Amazon Prime Video, and Comcast's NBC for broadcasting rights starting from the 2025-26 season. WBD's current contract gives it the option to surpass third-party bids — in this case, those from Amazon and NBC. WBD must submit its own bid by Monday evening.

According to insiders who are familiar with the discussions and wish to remain anonymous, the definition of a "comparable offer" in the current landscape is complex, as traditional cable and linear companies are directly competing with technology platforms.

WBD is likely to target Amazon's offer as the average annual value of $1.8 billion is closer to the current $1.2 billion per year that WBD pays. NBC's offer amounts to about $2.5 billion per year.

What happens next depends on WBD's reaction. An insider emphasized that WBD will either top one of the offers or not, "but this is not a bidding war.

A spokesperson for TNT Sports stated that the company had received the offers from the NBA and was preparing a response. The NBA, NBC, and Amazon declined to comment.

Insiders from the league and WBD agree that dollar amounts will not be the only criteria to determine the winner. Adam Silver, NBA commissioner, said last week that the league's goals in negotiations for the next media rights are both economic and fan-oriented, including a mix of broadcast and streaming options as well as international capabilities.

This is something we are very focused on with these deals, not just the reach in the USA, but also globally," said Silver, adding that details with existing partners need to be clarified before the contracts can be finalized.

A point of contention is the size and reach of streaming platforms. Amazon Prime Video had more than 200 million monthly viewers last year, while WBD's direct-to-consumer streaming reached nearly 100 million subscribers in the first quarter of 2024, including Max, where US viewers could watch simulated NBA games on TNT this season.

A WBD insider pointed out the differences in streaming subscriber numbers between the two companies but emphasized that any assessment of the NBA rights in question should be limited to domestic comparisons.

The discussions come at a critical time for WBD, whose executives are considering a possible breakup of the company in order to manage a net debt of 39 billion USD. The company's market capitalization has fallen by a third to 20.8 billion USD over the past year.

These circumstances, particularly the market capitalization, are significant for the league, according to an insider.

Persons Involved in the Negotiations Emphasized that "Unknowns Remain Unknown," as an Insider Put It - Meaning Final Rights Contracts Will Not Be Determined Until WBD Presents Its Counteroffer. However, When All Is Said and Done, the Total Value of the Rights Package Is Expected to Double, Reflecting the Importance of Live Sports in Retaining Cable and Streaming Subscribers.

Analysts at MoffettNathanson wrote in the spring that "the NBA has been a significant source of leverage for TNT and the broader linear portfolio of WBD.

Some of TNT's A-list talents have also advocated for keeping NBA games on the network, including Hall of Famer Charles Barkley, co-host of the flagship basketball program "Inside the NBA." In interviews over the past months, he has criticized WBD CEO David Zaslav for being publicly indecisive about the decision to retain the rights.

As we merged with Discovery [in 2022], our boss said first: 'We don't need the NBA,'" Barkley said in May on the "Dan Patrick Show." "Well, he doesn't need it, but the rest of the people [at TNT], we need it.