It was a golden moment: Tesla celebrated a market capitalization of over 1.5 trillion dollars, and investors seemed to agree that Elon Musk scored a strategic coup with Donald Trump's return to the White House. But as the stock soared to unprecedented heights, one crucial doubt remains: Can Tesla actually continue to grow – or are we witnessing the end of an impressive success story?
The numbers speak for themselves
Tesla has one goal: to finish 2024 with an increase in sales. However, this goal could be narrowly missed. Analysts predict around 510,400 vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter - a new record. But nearly 5,000 more sales are needed for annual growth.
This potential loss would not only be a symbolic setback. For over a decade, Tesla has consistently recorded rising sales figures. Stagnation or even a decline would mark the first serious dent in the self-image of the electric car giant.
Trump and Tesla: A Risky Balancing Act
Elon Musk's political about-face is one of the most exciting chapters in Tesla's recent history. As a prominent supporter of future President Trump, Musk has polarized—and potentially alienated entire target groups. However, Trump's policies could both harm and help Tesla.
On the one hand, the elimination of electric car subsidies could hit Tesla hard. On the other hand, analysts like Gene Munster speculate that the prospect of expiring tax benefits could trigger a buying frenzy in the short term. However, it remains a gamble: Can Tesla benefit from Trump's unorthodox agenda, or does the political maneuver risk becoming a boomerang?
A Market in Transition
Not only Tesla faces challenges. The global electric vehicle market is cooling down. China's BYD increasingly relies on plug-in hybrids, while European heavyweights like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Volvo are scaling back their EV targets.
In the USA, Ford expects a loss of 5 billion dollars in its electric vehicle division in 2024. Japan also shows uncertainties: Honda and Nissan are even considering a merger to meet the challenges of e-mobility.
Musk remains optimistic
Elon Musk is undeterred by this. For 2025, he predicts a sales growth of 20 to 30 percent – a statement that makes even optimistic observers skeptical. Analysts like Garrett Nelson consider the forecast "aggressive," especially in view of factors such as a stronger dollar, lower oil prices, and eased production regulations.
Tesla is focusing on cheaper models, expected to be available from 2025, as well as on cost reductions through simplified designs. Discounts, free charging stations, and leasing offers are intended to boost sales now. But is that enough to regain momentum?
The Big Question: Growth at Any Cost?
Tesla is at a turning point. Investors are euphoric, but analysts urge caution. The global EV market shows signs of fatigue, and Musk's political maneuver carries risks.
The question remains: Can Tesla continue its growth path, or will 2024 be the first time that the hype gives way to reality? Elon Musk may be convinced that Tesla's future shines – but time will tell if this confidence is justified.
