China is making history - and the Western automotive industry could be left behind. By 2025, more electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to be sold in the People's Republic than traditional combustion engines. A milestone that shows how far ahead the country is compared to Western competition. However, behind the gleaming sales figures lies a relentless race that will also claim victims in China.

Electric cars surpass combustion engines – and international forecasts

According to estimates first reported by Eulerpool, electric car sales in China will grow by 20% in 2025 and reach 12 million vehicles. This surpasses not only international forecasts but also Beijing's own targets. A comparison with 2022 shows the rapid development: at that time, sales were 5.9 million.

At the same time, sales of combustion engines are plummeting. A minus of 10% is expected for 2025, which corresponds to a shrinkage to less than 11 million vehicles. Since 2022, this is a decline of almost 30%. The western market? Doesn't even remotely keep up.

Why China is Ahead: Technology, Supply Chains, Costs

They want to electrify everything," says Robert Liew of Wood Mackenzie. China not only controls technological development but also the global supply chain for critical raw materials like lithium. The result: Economies of scale massively reduce production costs, and electric cars become more affordable.

While Europe and the USA are still grappling with subsidy debates and import barriers, China has already created facts. Electric cars are no longer a "future project" there - they are everyday life.

A nightmare for German car manufacturers

Especially the German automobile giants are trembling. Volkswagen, once a market leader in China, plans no new electric models before 2026 according to experts like Vincent Sun. A failure that China exploits mercilessly. The market share of foreign brands has already shrunk from 64% (2020) to 37%.

The consequences are bitter: Porsche parent Volkswagen expects a write-down loss of up to 20 billion euros. General Motors had to write off 5 billion dollars. And while Chinese manufacturers present new models almost daily, many Western companies remain in shock.

China's Electric Car Boom: An Industry Under Pressure

But even in China itself, success is not without side effects. The market is becoming increasingly competitive. HSBC analyst Yuqian Ding warns: "We see an oversupply of models, fierce price competition, and initial market shakeouts." Many smaller providers could soon disappear from the scene.

With approximately 90 new models in the last quarter of 2024 alone – 90% of them electric – it is clear: The industry is facing a massive upheaval.