The disruptive power of artificial intelligence (AI) will sweep through the information space this year, at a time of intense political and economic volatility around the world. The impacts on information reliability and the sustainability of mainstream media are expected to be profound, as critical elections in over 40 democracies are scheduled for this year, while conflicts in Europe and the Middle East continue to rage.

Against this background - and with a forecast stating that the majority of all internet content will be synthetically generated by 2026 - journalists and media organizations will urgently need to reconsider their role and purpose. However, it is not only content that is being upgraded, but distribution is also facing a major upheaval.

In this year, the so-called Search Generative Experiences (SGE) will be introduced on the internet, along with a variety of AI-driven chatbots, which will provide faster and more intuitive access to information. Given significant declines in traffic from Facebook and X (formerly Twitter), these changes are expected to further reduce audience flows to established news websites over time and increase pressure on the balance sheet.

In their optimistic moments, publishers envision an era in which they can overcome their dependency on a few technology giants and establish close, direct relationships with loyal customers. To this end, we can expect media owners to create more barriers for content and employ expensive lawyers to protect their intellectual property.

At the same time, they will be aware that these strategies risk excluding their brands by making it even more difficult to reach younger and less educated target groups - many of whom are already familiar with algorithmically generated news and have weaker ties to traditional media.

But with change comes opportunity, and this report is full of inspiring possibilities on how news organizations around the world are adapting to this new world. Embracing the best of AI and addressing its risks will be the fundamental narrative of the coming year.

These are the key findings from our industry survey, based on a strategic sample of more than 300 digital leaders from over 50 countries and regions. Only half (47%) of our sample of editors, CEOs, and digital executives state that they are confident in the prospects for journalism in the coming year. Approximately one-tenth (12%) express low confidence.

Reasons for this include rising costs, declining advertising revenue, and a decrease in subscription growth - as well as increasing legal and physical harassment. Reasons for hope include the prospect that fiercely contested elections in the USA and other countries could temporarily increase demand and interest, albeit with the potential for further damage to trust.

Nearly two-thirds (63%) of our respondents say that they are concerned about a significant decline in traffic from social media websites. Data collected for this report by analytics provider Chartbeat shows that traffic from Facebook to news websites has decreased by 48% in 2023, while traffic from X/Twitter has decreased by 27%.

In response to these developments, about three quarters (77%) say they will focus more on their own direct channels in the coming years, with a fifth (22%) relying on cost savings and a similar proportion (20%) trying out alternative platforms. Specifically, publishers will invest more in WhatsApp (+61 net value) and Instagram (+39) this year, after Meta decided to open up broadcasting channels for publishers.

The interest in video networks like TikTok (+55) and YouTube (+44) remains strong, while Google Discover becomes an increasingly important but volatile referral source. In contrast, the sentiment of publishers towards Facebook has continued to deteriorate this year (-38 net score), as well as towards X/Twitter (-39 net score).

Regarding the aforementioned, most of our publishers indicate that they will produce more videos (+64 net value), more newsletters (+52), and more podcasts (+47) in the coming years, but overall the same number of news articles - as they venture into some of the few remaining areas of audience and advertising growth.

Approximately half (54%) of the respondents admit that their companies are primarily focused on maximizing attention, rather than respectfully handling their audience's time (37%). The two dangers of selective news avoidance and news fatigue remain a significant concern for media companies trying to maintain interest in difficult stories such as those from Gaza and Ukraine.

Strategies that publishers consider to be very important to counteract these trends are a better explanation of complex stories (67%), approaches that focus on solutions or constructive narratives (44%), and inspiring human stories (43%). There is less support for commissioning positive (21%) or entertaining (18%) news.

In the business sector, publishers continue to rely on subscriptions and memberships, with a large majority of respondents (80%) stating that this will be an important source of revenue, even more so than display advertising and native advertising. Most of those operating a payment system report either a slight increase or stable subscriber numbers in recent years, despite the difficult economic outlook. As a number of publishers aim for lucrative licensing deals with AI platforms this year, there is little optimism that the benefits will be equally shared.

In our survey, one third (35%) of the respondents believed that the majority of the money would go to large publishers. Around half (48%) were of the opinion that at the end of the day, there would not be much money left for any publisher. The use of AI for automated news (56%) is considered the most important use of this technology by the publisher respondents, followed by better recommendations (37%) and commercial applications (28%).

Publishers are ambivalent about the use of AI for content creation, which is rated as the biggest reputation-related risk by more than half of the respondents. Experimental interfaces to the internet such as AR glasses and other wearable devices will be a feature of the upcoming year.