The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces a monthly coincident index for each of the 50 states. These coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables included in each index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is aligned with the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), ensuring that the long-term growth of the state’s index matches the long-term growth of its GDP.

What is Coincident Index?

The coincident index is a critical metric in macroeconomics, providing a comprehensive snapshot of the current state of economic activity within a given region. As a professional platform dedicated to disseminating macroeconomic data, Eulerpool places significant emphasis on delivering accurate and timely information regarding the coincident index to help economists, analysts, and policymakers make well-informed decisions. A coincident index aggregates a diverse range of indicators that move in tandem with the overall economy. These indicators typically include variables such as employment figures, personal income levels, industrial production, and retail sales. By compiling these data points, the coincident index offers a real-time perspective of economic health, contrasting with leading or lagging indicators that either forecast future economic conditions or confirm trends after they have taken shape. The development of the coincident index traces back to the need for a robust mechanism that captures the essence of economic performance at any given moment. Various countries and institutions, including the Conference Board in the United States, have devised their versions of the coincident index to reflect the economic conditions pertinent to their contexts. These indices are invaluable for creating economic policies, business strategies, and investment decisions, as they provide a pulse check on the economy's current performance. At Eulerpool, we prioritize the accuracy and reliability of our coincident index data, recognizing their pivotal role in economic analysis. Our platform meticulously curates data from reputable sources and adheres to stringent methodologies to ensure that the coincident index we present is a true reflection of contemporary economic conditions. Understanding the components of the coincident index is essential for deciphering its implications. Employment data, for instance, is a critical element since it directly correlates with consumer spending and, consequently, overall economic activity. High employment levels typically indicate robust economic health, while declining employment figures can signal a weakening economy. At Eulerpool, we offer detailed insights into employment trends, dissecting variables like unemployment rates, job creation statistics, and workforce participation. Personal income levels are another fundamental component of the coincident index. They provide insights into the financial well-being of households, which influences consumer spending—the backbone of economic activity. By tracking variables such as wages, salaries, and transfer payments, Eulerpool helps users gauge the purchasing power of consumers and their likely spending behavior. Industrial production data, which measures the output of factories, mines, and utilities, is yet another critical element of the coincident index. This data not only helps track the manufacturing sector's performance but also serves as a barometer for broader economic trends. A thriving industrial production environment usually signals robust business confidence and economic expansion, while sluggish production can be indicative of economic slowdown. Eulerpool provides granular data on industrial production trends, enabling users to pinpoint industry-specific dynamics and broader economic patterns. Retail sales, reflecting consumer spending, are inherently linked to the overall health of the economy. Retail sales data offers direct insights into consumer confidence and disposable income levels, thus serving as a vital component of the coincident index. At Eulerpool, we strive to deliver comprehensive retail sales data, breaking down figures across various segments to offer a nuanced understanding of consumer spending habits. The coincident index, despite its immediacy, is not immune to limitations. For instance, it does not predict future economic conditions, missing the forward-looking element that leading indices offer. Additionally, the coincident index can sometimes be susceptible to volatility, as it aggregates data points that can fluctuate due to short-term anomalies or seasonal effects. At Eulerpool, we address these limitations by providing contextual analysis and trend-based insights to interpret the coincident index data meaningfully. Our experts offer in-depth commentary and auxiliary data sets to complement the coincident index, helping users navigate its complexities and extract actionable insights. Another aspect where Eulerpool adds value is in the comparative analysis of coincident indices across different regions. By providing a platform for cross-regional analysis, we empower users to benchmark economic performance and identify relative strengths and weaknesses within various economies. This global perspective is invaluable for multinational corporations, international investors, and policymakers engaged in cross-border economic planning and strategy. The coincident index's utility extends beyond its immediate data points; it integrates into broader economic models and forecasting methodologies. For instance, it serves as a critical input for models assessing economic cycles, providing a real-time reference against which other variables can be measured and interpreted. At Eulerpool, we integrate coincident index data into advanced analytical tools, enabling users to conduct sophisticated economic modeling and scenario analysis. In summary, the coincident index is an indispensable tool in macroeconomic analysis, offering a real-time snapshot of economic activity through a composite of critical indicators such as employment, personal income, industrial production, and retail sales. At Eulerpool, we take pride in delivering accurate, reliable, and context-rich coincident index data, empowering our users to make informed and strategic economic decisions. Our commitment to methodological rigor, detailed insights, and global perspective ensures that Eulerpool remains an authoritative source for macroeconomic data, specifically the coincident index.