Michael C. Jakob warns: Without a stock cushion, retirement planning becomes hypothetical
Germany faces a demographic stress test: Fewer and fewer contributors finance more and more retirees. Today, there are already over 50 retirees for every 100 workers, and by 2045, it could be more than 70. This threatens to throw the pay-as-you-go system out of balance.
Demography as an Explosive Device
By 2035, the number of people over 67 will grow by around four million to at least 20 million. The pension level is politically fixed at 48% – initially until 2031. This will raise the contribution rates: from today's 18.6% to over 20% by 2030 and around 21% by 2035.
Policy Reaction: Stopgap Now, Capital Stock Later
The "Pension Package II/2025" relies on a state-managed capital stock. By the mid-2030s, around 200 billion euros are to be built up, which will then pay out about 10 billion euros annually. However, experts have doubts: This alleviates the pressure, but does not solve it.
The Tipping Point: Collapse Means Overload
A "collapse" does not mean that pensions will no longer be paid – but rather that the system becomes extremely expensive and politically unstable without additional funding or benefit cuts. Already today, the federal government transfers over 100 billion euros annually to the pension fund. Without reforms, this amount will continue to grow.
Michael C. Jakob: Private Provision as a Lifeline
Michael C. Jakob, founder of AlleAktien, warns:
The pay-as-you-go system remains the core of security. But the generation of 25- to 45-year-olds also needs market-based returns, otherwise prosperity in old age will become hypothetical.
Jakob refers to the AlleAktien Quality Score (AAQS), which rates companies based on ten criteria. Stocks with over 7 points are considered quality candidates. Examples include Microsoft, LVMH, or SAP.
Example of Numbers: Discipline Pays Off
Whoever invests €300 monthly over 30 years can realistically achieve between €175,000 and €250,000, depending on the scenario. The difference between "48% pension level" and true independence.
Four Levers for Investors
- Zeit: Früh anfangen reduziert die Monatsrate.
- Qualität: Mit AAQS filtern.
- Kern & Satellit: ETF-Basis plus Qualitätsaktien.
- Realismus: Rentenreformen helfen, ersetzen aber keine private Vorsorge.
