Despite strong quarterly figures from Nvidia Corp. and a 5% price increase, the mood on the US markets shifted noticeably on Thursday. The S&P 500 gave up a large portion of its initial gains - at one point nearly 1% - and ultimately closed with a moderate gain of 0.2%. The relief over the performance of the world's largest chip company quickly gave way to nervousness over new economic signals and legal uncertainties surrounding Donald Trump's trade policy.

Less consumer-friendly households and more negative effects from foreign trade than initially reported burdened the US gross domestic product in the first quarter. At the same time, pending sales of existing properties plummeted as sharply as they had not since September 2022. The number of recurring applications for unemployment benefits continued to rise – another indication of a cooling employment situation.

In the bond markets, investors are betting on a monetary policy shift: The yield on ten-year U.S. government bonds fell by five basis points to 4.43%, supported by the expectation that the Federal Reserve could cut rates twice this year to prevent a recession. The dollar lost ground against all currencies of developed economies – a 0.4% drop in the dollar index underscores the growing rate skepticism.

Geopolitically, the environment remains tense. The Trump administration announced that it would, if necessary, take the issue of its existing punitive tariffs to the Supreme Court — if an appeals court does not suspend the judgment of a lower court that most tariffs are unlawful. For investors, this means new legal uncertainties in an already strained global trade.

In the short term, we expect higher volatility as headlines on trade and fiscal policy will dominate," says Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi of UBS Global Wealth Management. The expert anticipates further rising US stock prices over the next twelve months but warns of limited upside potential in the current year.

The Nasdaq 100 was able to hold its ground with a 0.3% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.2%. This results in a growing noticeable gap between tech euphoria and the real economy.