Dax Between Crash Anxiety and Interest Rate Hope
The DAX has reacted turbulently: First, it falls below 23,500 points, drops to 23,000 – then a sudden jump back follows. The markets appear nervous, the CNN Fear and Greed Index is deep in the "extreme fear" range. This can often be the breeding ground for a recovery. A year-end rally remains possible – but the leeway is tight.
Interest Rates Decide the Direction
The US interest rate markets have recently provided relief: Ten-year government bonds fell back below 4 percent. In addition, the Fed will end its quantitative tightening from December 1 – an important psychological factor.
If the expected rate cut of 25 basis points comes on December 10, combined with a more neutral balance policy, it could trigger a positive surprise for the markets.
Chip values as a possible rally trigger
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is currently particularly strong. After new records in September/October, there has been only a mild setback since the beginning of November. A single strong day above 6,800–7,000 points could be enough to propel Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC, Intel, and ASML again – and with them, the Nasdaq and Dax.
DAX Favorites: Light and Shadow
SAP: Warning Signal Instead of Recovery
SAP has fallen below the April low and is approaching 200 euros. Reasons:
- weak competitive signals (Oracle, Salesforce)
- a cartel proceeding
- uncertainty about possible acquisitions
A quick easing is not in sight.
Rheinmetall: Top Formation After Price Shock
After a 30 percent crash due to possible Ukraine negotiations, the price stabilizes slightly. However, the valuation premium was excessive:
- P/E ratio over 60 was not sustainable
- expected earnings in 2026: approx. 40 € per share
- fairer valuation: approx. 1,200 € by the end of 2026
The stock might move sideways for a longer period.
Deutsche Börse: Allfunds Acquisition Brings Momentum
The possible €5.3 billion purchase strengthens the fund service business. The leap over €200 could mark the end of the seven-month correction. The cartel proceedings are burdensome but are expected to remain economically manageable.
Beiersdorf: Largest correction since the financial crisis
The decline in value is 40 percent – close to the 50 percent of the financial crisis. Reasons:
– Weak consumer sector
– Issues with price enforcement
– Traditionally high valuation
There were many historical trend reversals between 80 and 90 euros; added to this is growth potential in the anti-aging market and four billion euros net liquidity.
Critical Price Zones: 23,500 to 23,000 Points
Before the Fed meeting, there will be few directional decisions. Crucial:
– above 23,500 points → hope zone stable
– 23,500–23,000 points → neutral, but shaky
– below 23,000 points → danger imminent
If the DAX falls below 23,000, quick movements threaten - like the "customs crash" in April that led directly to 20,000.
A relief rally after the interest rate cut is possible. But: At the latest in the traditionally weak January, the test of the 23,000-point mark could be due again.
