Watch market in reverse: Price plunge in the secondary market

The market for pre-owned luxury watches is experiencing headwinds from the entire industry. A new report from Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts shows that prices fell by 5.7 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year. This affects not only the prestigious 'Big Three' – Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet – but also other high-end watch manufacturers. Impressively, the market experienced its eleventh consecutive decline in the fourth quarter of the year since peaking in May 2022. Overall, prices fell less sharply in 2024, but more broadly than in 2023. A total of 28 out of 35 Swiss watch manufacturers recorded declines in price levels on the secondary market. Some brands, however, have held their ground. Certina, Frédérique Constant, Montblanc, and Longines showed positive developments this year. Brands whose average resale price is over $10,000 and who strongly focus on sports models struggled the most, while all brands over $3,000 ended in the negative range. The market shares of the 'Big Three' shrank by 2 percent, due to waning interest in high-priced models and growing demand for other brands. Rolex, in particular, saw prices drop to a four-year low, 3 percent below the level of January 2021. Despite this, sales of certified used goods increased significantly, estimated to reach $300 million. Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet, despite falling prices, still show considerable increases of 22 and 28 percent, respectively, but are moving towards their lowest point in the last three and a half years. Meanwhile, Cartier remains a bright spot for Richemont, with 18 percent growth in the secondary market, despite a weaker fourth quarter. The year 2024 brought LVMH significant declines in the resale value of its watchmakers, which fell by 6.4 percent. Hublot was hit particularly hard, while Tag Heuer, Bulgari, and Zenith moved around the market average. The Swatch Group managed to remain in the positive with its entry-level luxury brands, but the Swatch brand suffered greatly from the performance of the MoonSwatch. Forecasts for 2025 suggest that the price gap between retail and secondary markets will continue to grow. Certified pre-owned programs could represent a solution in this regard.